UBS: Its time to short the US dollar

[think]

UBS: It’s time to short the US dollar

Leslie Shaffer - Wednesday, 21 Dec 2016 | 10:28 PM ET
CNBC.com

Markets may be betting on the greenback to scale new heights, but chances are now is the time to go short, Adrian Zuercher, head of asset allocation for Asia at UBS, said on Thursday.

The dollar has surged in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise election win in the U.S. and as the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets at its meeting last week by indicating it would likely hike rates three times next year, a faster rate of tightening than the widely expected two times.

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, extended recent gains, touching 103.65, according to Reuters data, its highest since December 2002. The dollar index retreated to 102.97 at 10:43 a.m. HK/SIN on Thursday. But Zuercher said the gains may sputter soon.

"We actually think the U.S. dollar is highly overvalued at this stage and particularly over the past couple of weeks," Zuercher told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday. "The rally is unjustified."...

Read more:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/ubs-its-time-to-short-the-us-dollar.html

[uponit7771]

1. YES !! I've been saying for the last 6 weeks that any spike in the indexes would be an abnormal

... one and akin to 2007-ish spike !!!

Take the money and run !!!

RIGHT NOW!!!

Even if the market went up 10% that's better than looking at things tank and be on the down end of it

[Truth321]

2. What other currency do you recommend?

Certainly not the euro or the yen.

[think]

3. I don't recommend UBS at all. If you're referring to UBS however, they say the yen is undervalued

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-12-19/ubs-yu-yen-is-undervalued

[KamaAina]

4. Canadian dollar?

They'll be in position to replace us as the North American trading partner of choice, eh?

[former9thward]

5. Ahh, No.

Their economy is 1/9 that of the U.S.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

7. I would't hold pocket change in Canadian dollars

I work in Canada and keep as little Canadian currency on hand as is practical. The Canadian dollar is going to plunge again.

Canada can't raise interests rates without blowing up the housing market. They're preparing to run huge deficits, Ontario is murdering it's industrial base with expensive "green energy" and Alberta's resource sector is going to lay dormant unless oil climbs above $80-$100 and stays there for several years. And even through they can't raise interest rates that doesn't guarantee the Canadian housing market won't crash anyways. The Canadian housing market makes California circa 2005 look prudent and stable.

Canada is pretty righteously fucked at the moment.

[Wounded Bear]

6. IMNSHO. we're in for another bust within 1-2 years...

Perhaps they'll stretch it out til after the mid-terms, but I'm wondering if that's even possible. They delayed the '08 debacle as long as they could, but couldn't delay it enough to blame it realistically on Obama, though many do because of the fake news media.

Hillary and Bernie had some solutions for the coming bubble in the education loan markets. I suspect that will go tits up pretty soon, there's nothing supporting it.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

8. The US dollar is over-valued, severely so. But...

it is a relative beacon of stability compared to every other alternative Trump or no Trump.