How Analytical Models Failed Clinton

[FBaggins]

It was well known that tra­di­tion­al polling was hav­ing prob­lems. The numb­ing ef­fect of bil­lions of tele­market­ing calls and the ad­vent of caller ID and voice mail had re­duced re­sponse rates (the per­cent­age of com­pleted in­ter­views for every hun­dred at­tempts) from the 40s a couple of dec­ades ago to the high single di­gits. As they struggled to get truly rep­res­ent­at­ive samples, poll­sters “weighted” their data more than ever be­fore, mak­ing as­sump­tions of what the elect­or­ate would look like on elec­tion days that were weeks, months, or even a year or more away.

...snip...

The re­li­ance, or per­haps over­re­li­ance on ana­lyt­ics, may be one of the factors con­trib­ut­ing to Clin­ton’s sur­prise de­feat. The Clin­ton team was so con­fid­ent in its ana­lyt­ic­al mod­els that it op­ted not to con­duct track­ing polls in a num­ber of states dur­ing the last month of the cam­paign. As a con­sequence, de­teri­or­at­ing sup­port in states such as Michigan and Wis­con­sin fell be­low the radar screen, slip­page that that tra­di­tion­al track­ing polls would have cer­tainly caught.

Ac­cord­ing to Kantar Me­dia/CMAG data, the Clin­ton cam­paign did not go on the air with tele­vi­sion ads in Wis­con­sin un­til the weeks of Oct. 25 and Nov. 1, spend­ing in the end just $2.6 mil­lion. Su­per PACs back­ing Clin­ton didn’t air ads in Wis­con­sin un­til the last week of the cam­paign. In Michigan, aside from a tiny $16,000 buy by the cam­paign and a party com­mit­tee the week of Oct. 25, the Clin­ton cam­paign and its al­lied groups didn’t con­duct a con­cer­ted ad­vert­ising ef­fort un­til a week be­fore the elec­tion.

In fact, the Clin­ton cam­paign spent more money on tele­vi­sion ad­vert­ising in Ari­zona, Geor­gia, and the Omaha, Neb­raska mar­kets than in Michigan and Wis­con­sin com­bined. It was Michigan and Wis­con­sin, along with Pennsylvania (the Clin­ton cam­paign and al­lied groups did spend $42 mil­lion on tele­vi­sion in the Key­stone State), that ef­fect­ively cost Demo­crats the pres­id­ency.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10205

[yallerdawg]

1. Why on earth would the Clinton campaign worry?

And don't forget - we definitely had North Carolina and Florida, too!

No worries!

Just astounding, lingering shock.

It was the in­di­vidu­al state polling that badly missed the mark. In Wis­con­sin, Clin­ton led in each of the 32 pub­lic polls from mid-Au­gust on. The fi­nal Mar­quette Uni­versity Law School, gen­er­ally con­sidered to be the most re­spec­ted in the state, had the Demo­crat up by 6 points. She lost by eight-tenths of a point.

In Pennsylvania, Clin­ton led in 37 out of 38 polls be­gin­ning in early Au­gust. CNN’s last poll had Clin­ton up by 4 points, the fi­nal Quin­nipi­ac poll had her up by 5 points, and the Real­Clear­Polit­ics av­er­age had her up by 1.9 per­cent­age points. She lost by eight-tenths of a point.

In Michigan, Clin­ton was ahead in 25 out of 26 polls taken from the be­gin­ning of Au­gust on. The De­troit Free Press’s last poll had her up by four points, and the Real­Clear­Polit­ics av­er­age had her up by 3.6 points. She lost by two-tenths of a point.

[andym]

2. These polls were probably pretty close-- it wasn't analytics-- it was bad news

1 part Wikileaks and 9 parts Comey that came at the worst possible time. The two Comey stories coming so close to the election, just reinforced all the negative painting that Hillary Clinton had been hit with over the last 3 years. The FBI especially is still relatively trusted and that was the end of the campaign of a talented but vulnerable candidate.

[uponit7771]

3. +1, what Comey did should be prosecuted seeing that it now opens up all agency heads that investigat

... to announce investigations days before elections to affect elections if he's not.

It would do the nation no good to have Comey sit pretty for what he did, no good at all

[oasis]

4. Comey's a disgrace and should pay a high political price. nt

[LisaL]

8. Trump could give him a medal?

[LisaL]

7. Timing was perfect. For Trump.

It isn't called an October surprise for nothing.

[yardwork]

9. And "journalists" stating that Hillary was under indictment the week before the election.

[TheFrenchRazor]

5. give it up; it was hacked. nt

[LisaL]

6. Analytical models didn't expect Comey to send his letters.