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Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 12:26 PM Jan 2017

Did Trump actually do better than Rubio or Bush or Cruz or Kasich would have done?

Popular is the notion that Trump made for a much worse candidate than some of the mainstream Republicans who sought the nomination. I question that assumption. Although we'll never know for sure, I can't help but wonder if turnout for Trump was actually substantially higher than turnout would have been for a different Republican candidate.

As one author put it, "Trump’s appeal is cultural, rather than economic. It’s a mix of anti-elitism, anti-political correctness, and white identity politics, not carefully cultivated policies. The fact that we’re talking about the white working class, instead of just the working class, is a pretty big clue."

Simply put, Trump's appeal is extremely strong (cult-like) among the Republican electorate. As Obama had said during the campaign, the GOP has been "feeding their base all kinds of crazy for years."

For another thing, Trump was able to dominate the news cycle day after day, week after week, month after month. And I doubt the negative press turned off many (if any) of his supporters--in fact, it probably inspired them. So, when the media wasn't talking about Clinton emails, it was all Trump all the time.

Lastly, neither the anti-trade nor the anti-establishment narrative really holds up to scrutiny, as I've written repeatedly. Major proponents of the TPP won even more easily than Trump did, those backed most strongly by Sanders did worse than Clinton, the re-election rate of incumbents was even higher than normal, and so on.

In other words, I don't think Trump's appeal is as rooted in anti-establishment sentiment as some would have us believe. I think his appeal is much more visceral than that.

Again, did Trump perhaps do better than any of the other Republicans would have done? I think it's possible, if not likely.

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Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
4. And because his appeal is so cult-like, so visceral, cultural rather than economic...
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 01:00 PM
Jan 2017

...I think the disintegration of his support is much more unlikely than some would like to believe.

They have to be outnumbered.

underpants

(186,640 posts)
2. This author missed that Trump did not win a majority in the primary either
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 12:49 PM
Jan 2017

He won some early states with 20-25%. Of course this was framed as him "beating 16 other candidates" (there were at most 10 viable candidates in their primaries) when actually he won in a diluted field. He went out and got a core of racist hateful white men who often don't vote but they came out for him.

It all still comes down to airtime. Even in the primaries his events were continually broadcast. You simply can't beat that kind of advertising. Cruz actually mentioned the $2B estimate but it was ignored by the news - Trump and his wrestling match like events were great for ratings.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
3. I didn't miss any such thing. He didn't win a majority in the general either.
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 12:53 PM
Jan 2017

But he's the president-elect just the same.

And I mentioned the media coverage.

spin

(17,493 posts)
5. In my opinion Jeb would have lost to Hillary. ...
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 01:12 PM
Jan 2017

Thee's a lot of voters in our nation who are dissatisfied with economic conditions in our nation and blame it on two of the last three administrations. They are the people who say, "No more Bushes and no more Clintons." I feel the Republican voter turnout would have been significantly depressed had Bush the brother won the nomination which would have worked to Hillary's advantage.

However i do feel Rubio would have done better than Jeb. He's young and somewhat charismatic. He would have pulled in a high percentage of the Hispanic vote but I'm not sure if he could have pulled off a win in the end.

Cruz impresses me as very intelligent but he is simply not likeable. He is also in my opinion far to conservative to win in today's environment.

Kasich is boring and dull. if he would have won the Republican nomination many conservative leaning voters would have set at home watching sitcoms, eating pizza and drinking beer on election day.

I seriously believe Trump was the wrong candidate at exactly the right time for him to win. In any normal presidential election year he would have failed to win the nomination. This was a change election and many voters were so pissed they didn't just want change, they wanted to burn the establishment down. Trump may well be the Molotov cocktail to do just that.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
6. The establishment did very well, overall.
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 01:15 PM
Jan 2017

And the most anti-establishment candidates did not do well.

Trump's appeal is cultural. Trump is the most Wall Street friendly candidate ever.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
10. Of course. Did anyone truly doubt that Donald J Trump would be extremely WS-friendly?!?
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 03:57 PM
Jan 2017

Or that he'd fill his cabinet with big donors and establishment types?

In other news, water is wet.

 

bowens43

(16,064 posts)
8. No. He did worse then any of the others would have done.
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 02:18 PM
Jan 2017

the others at least could look lie they are sane

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
9. Sanity doesn't hold as much appeal with the GOP electorate as it does for you and me.
Fri Jan 6, 2017, 03:54 PM
Jan 2017

There's a reason most of the fake news (and we're talking about some truly crazy stuff) was pro-Trump/pro-Republican and anti-Clinton/anti-Democrat. Supply and demand.

80% of Trump's supporters are Birthers, which is insanity rooted in racism.

Again, Obama openly recognized that the GOP has been "feeding their base all kinds of crazy for years." As diplomatic as Obama typically is, I think that speaks volumes. Trump's stiffest competition came from Cruz, who's also crazy. As are most of the Republicans who campaigned for the nomination, quite frankly. Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, etc.

Someone in another thread actually referred to Kasich as a "moderate." That's downright scary. Kasich and Rubio may come across as relatively sane, but there's nothing moderate about them.

I don't think any other candidate would have inspired the Republican Party base as much as Trump did. His overt bigotry was key.

classof56

(5,376 posts)
11. Kudos for this thread.
Sat Jan 7, 2017, 03:16 PM
Jan 2017

Well-articulated points, as always.

Here's my take on why people voted for tRump: To begin with, they are ignorant and purposefully (or is that purposely?) ill-informed. When self-identified christians thank god for sending them rRump, some even declaring he is god incarnate, just like Jesus, you gotta know there's no reasoning with them. After the election, I had a phone conversation with a long-time friend in another state, who asked me what I thought about the results. I expressed disappointment because I had looked forward to a woman president in my lifetime (I'm pretty old). My friend remarked she figured people were ready for change and mentioned Obama giving away thousands of dollars, for which purpose she wasn't clear. At once, I understood there would be no reasoning with her and didn't pursue the subject. Wasn't quite ready to end a friendship. One of those associations, I guess, where it's easy to avoid contentious topics and thus be able to continue communication. In retrospect, I should have pursued all those thousands of dollars Obama was doling out and how I could have gotten in on the receiving end of a few of them.

Another biggie for those supporters (as you've alluded to) is that he isn't Black, a woman, and as I once saw posted by a "christian" on a Facebook page I happened across, his lies pale in comparison to what Hillary had done. What that was, I was never too sure, but at least I understood they were aware he was lying. What to do with that mindset is beyond me, always will be, but there ya go.

In closing, let me say that tRump will never be my president (the thought still makes me physically ill), but I remain fully aware that his "supporters" will never recognize what they have wrought, and think any crazed depraved idiotic thing he does is just fine. Because, after all, god sent him to save the world, just like Jesus.

Peace.

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