2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumStudy: racism and sexism predicted DT support much more than economic dissatisfaction.
This is not news to most of us here -- at least those who noted that Hillary voters had a lower median income than DT supporters.
http://www.vox.com/identities/2017/1/4/14160956/trump-racism-sexism-economy-study
Following Donald Trumps election, the media tried to identify several indicators for why he won. Was it the opioid painkiller and heroin epidemic? Poor health outcomes? The economy?
A new paper by political scientists Brian Schaffner, Matthew MacWilliams, and Tatishe Nteta puts the blame back on the same factors people pointed to before the election: racism and sexism. And the research has a very telling chart to prove it, showing that voters measures of sexism and racism correlated much more closely with support for Trump than economic dissatisfaction after controlling for factors like partisanship and political ideology:
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As the paper acknowledges, clearly economic dissatisfaction was one factor and in an election in which Trump essentially won by just 80,000 votes in three states, maybe that, along with issues like the opioid epidemic and poor health outcomes, was enough to put Trump over the top. But the analysis also shows that a bulk of support for Trump perhaps what made him a contender to begin with came from beliefs rooted in racism and sexism.
Specifically, the researchers conclude that racism and sexism explain most of Trumps enormous electoral advantage with non-college-educated white Americans, the group that arguably gave Trump the election. We find that while economic dissatisfaction was part of the story, racism and sexism were much more important and can explain about two-thirds of the education gap among whites in the 2016 presidential vote, the researchers write.
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AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)No Democratic candidate for POTUS has won the white vote since LBJ. Trump is horrifying (and also the most Wall Street friendly candidate ever), but the one thing that made him viable was his overt bigotry. Take that away and he loses badly. The Trump Cult would not exist. Trump could break virtually every campaign promise and not lose much support. But if he were to do a 180 on civil rights, his support would collapse.
Yavin4
(36,375 posts)Thank you.