Suleimani's death is a huge blow to Iran's plans for regional domination
© 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited
Hassan Hassan
The killing of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani could prove to be the most consequential US slaying of an enemy operative in recent memory. It will eclipse in its significance the killing of Osama bin Laden almost a decade ago or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. Not because it might spark another Middle East war, as many have warned, or merely because Suleimani was irreplaceable. Rather, his killing came at a time when the project he had led – to create an Iranian hegemony in the region – is facing unprecedented challenges in Iraq and Lebanon, through cross-sectarian and grassroots protests, while in Syria the project is still in its infancy. One can add to this picture a more aggressive policy adopted by the US.
Indeed, Suleimani was killed while he was trying to deal with these very challenges. His successor is unlikely to be able to complete that mission and contain the spiral of events in countries where, only a year ago, Iran declared major victories – in Syria against the rebels, in Lebanon through a Hezbollah-friendly government and in Iraq and Syria against Isis.
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In the long term, though, Suleimani’s killing will likely mark the end of an era for Iran’s attempts to further expand its influence in the region. It is true that, in some countries, Iran has been able to build a “machine” that will operate without Suleimani, something he had helped create after four decades of working with operatives in the region, as part of Iran’s network of militancy. A series of blunders and geopolitical events over the years, such as the war in Iraq, enabled him to use his expansive network to entrench Iran’s influence.
His work took a long time to bear fruit in Iraq and Lebanon, but he had not yet had the same time nor secured the same connections in such places as Syria and Yemen. For Iran to replicate its successes in Iraq and Lebanon, it would have needed the indispensable presence of Suleimani. He was killed after the Syrian regime had recaptured most of the country from the rebels, so Iran’s ability to set up the Iraq model in Syria was already significantly harder. Better for Tehran if Damascus had remained dependent on it to fight a raging war. In Syria, unlike Iraq, the government survived and has no interest in allowing Iran to infiltrate.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/05/soleimani-death-huge-blow-to-iran-plans-for-regional-domination?CMP=share_btn_tw
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