****Florida Shock Poll**** You won't believe it- Biden 61% Sanders 12%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Even before Mike Bloomberg dropped out of the race for President, voters in Florida were consolidating behind Joe Biden.

More than 61% of likely Florida voters favor Biden, according to the most recent survey by St. Pete Polls commissioned by Florida Politics (the full PDF of the poll is embedded below). That gives the former Vice President a commanding lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, at 12%, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, with 5%.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/321847-latest-poll-of-florida-primary-shows-joe-biden-with-massive-lead-over-bernie-sanders

Could Biden get all of Florida's 219 delegates?

[getagrip_already]

1. yeah, I don't believe it....

No way has more than 8% in florida.

[hlthe2b]

2. I know nothing about that pollster, but this seem incredible to me.

and ya know what? I want Biden to win, but I likewise want Sanders to maintain his dignity, which blow-outs like this would not achieve. I want Bernie and his supporters to unite with all of us and quite frankly for Bernie to work with like-minded Senators on some of his proposals--even a well-crafted public option that might ultimately be the stepping stone to a move to M4A.

[TwilightZone]

13. I take the opposite approach.

If we're going to blunt the nonsense that is undoubtedly coming should Biden win the nomination, it would be helpful for his win to be emphatic.

If the win is a solid majority and there is no doubt Biden is the winner, I think people will be less likely to take the kind of silliness that happened in 2016 seriously. That's not to say that it won't happen. I just think most people will have little or no tolerance for it.

[hlthe2b]

24. I agree that it could go either way.

This sense of victimization that the RW is trying to promote (somewhat successfully, it seems) among Sanders supporters just has me very concerned. We saw what that did to HRC in terms of uniting his supporters and with the impacts of malign intercesssion, it might well be infitely worse.

[TwilightZone]

25. It'll happen regardless, if Biden wins the nomination.

I just think that if the win is emphatic, there's much less to (legitimately) question and it won't get the same kind of media attention, drama, and so on if it's a clear win. We can't afford to have it drag on for months after the nomination is secured. Again.

[hlthe2b]

29. True, that. I surely don't want a convention war.

[Mme. Defarge]

30. Exactement!

[exboyfil]

51. Biden is a class act

I think he would tone down the blow out aspect of it, but it should be a very clear message to Sanders to gracefully exit the race (if he hasn't already taken the hint).

[Demsrule86]

52. They are not going to be and a blowout is just what we need to end this shit.

[OnDoutside]

58. 1000% agree. The time for a graceful exit was last Wednesday. This is

why I said many weeks ago that if he was to lose, I hoped he would finish 3rd or worse so that we wouldn't end up with another 2016. I want him to be hammered in this week's primaries, though I remain suspicious that even that will change him.

For the future, I want the DNC to bring in new rules

1 You must be a registered Democrat for 3 years before running, no exceptions.

2 You must release your full medical records 3 months before the first primary, otherwise you will be excluded.

3 The DNC reserve the right to get you to submit to a medical by their doctors, otherwise you will be excluded.

4 You must release your full tax records 3 months before the first primary, otherwise you will be excluded.

[Demsrule86]

60. I agree with every word.

[OnDoutside]

61. Thanks !

[Cha]

63. I think it's up to BS to "maintain his dignity"..

It's up to the Voters to vote for whom they want.

It's not as if Joe Biden isn't getting smeared from the right and other sources.. so far the Voters are seeing right through that..

[honest.abe]

3. OMFG!!

That is what you would call a major blowout.

[OnDoutside]

4. So, Joe's got a chance ?

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

5. Could be 1 percent

Bernie is not winning Florida 😒

[LexVegas]

6. Yeah..those Castro comments won't hurt Bernie at all. nt

[Kahuna7]

7. Goodness. Team Bernie will holler like Cab Calloway if that result is true...

[oasis]

68. Hidey, hidey, hoooooo....... It's time to pack up an' go!

[Kahuna7]

70. LOL! You got the hoooooooo part right...

[Gothmog]

8. It appears that sanders' support of Castro is not being well received in the Sunshine State

Link to tweet

[TwilightZone]

9. And 14% for Bloomberg.

That will mostly end up in the Biden column, of course.

[Mike 03]

21. Yes, it's safe to basically view Bloomberg delegates as Joe's. nt

[Todd79]

10. Not shocking at all in that state. Affirmation.

[awesomerwb1]

11. Is this within the margin of error?

[honest.abe]

14. LOL

[TwilightZone]

16. haha

Nice.

[Zambero]

12. Summer heat and two ice cream cones??

A daunting challenge, but Joe has that look of confidence!

[sandensea]

23. Bad for blood sugar though.

I don't blame him - but c'mon, Joe. We need you at your healthiest, big guy.

[OnDoutside]

15. According to 538,

Biden is forecasted to win an average of 43% of the vote in Florida. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 30% and 59% of the vote. He has a 4 in 5 (81%) chance of winning the most votes, much better than the second most likely winner, Sanders, who has a 1 in 12 (9%) chance.

AND that's old

The forecast is frozen while we await final Super Tuesday results. It is not updating with any new data, including polls.

[honest.abe]

17. Is Nate waiting for CA final results to run the update?

That might be awhile.

[OnDoutside]

20. Yes, it seems so, which makes it probably worse for Sanders.

[TwilightZone]

19. Yep, already had a big lead.

With others dropping out and another 14% still in the poll for Bloomberg, 60% is probably right on target.

[DonaldsRump]

18. I am sure that someone is going to smear Uncle Joe

on the basis that there appears to be a tiny smidge of ice cream on Joe's lip as "further indiication" of his deteriorating mind...and that BHO's appearance in this picture (regardless of the date) is a clear-cut example of the "Democratic establishment" (ie, voters) ganging up on other candidates.

That's before the photoshopping and the fake videos are inserted.

(If any doubts, the above is oozing with )

[AGeddy]

22. People underestimate how bad the Castro gaffe was for Bernie

And also... it is a state full of retirees - the exact demographic that hates Bernie with a passion.

[yardwork]

39. It's not just one gaffe. It's his entire adult life's support for Castro.

[RandySF]

26. Yeah, I don't think so.

[Gothmog]

27. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Turin_C3PO]

28. It's because of the Castro fiasco.

That’s poisonous in Florida.

[yardwork]

38. And it's not just one speech Sanders' gave.

Bernie's whole history around Cuba is an issue.

[Legends303]

31. Wow if that lead holds

Biden will wrap this thing up in two weeks.

[emmaverybo]

32. This means Bernie hits " Joe will cut Social Security" hard. And Sirota behind the scenes will be

pushing other things. Another woman might “come forward.” Whatever. It will get ugly now fast.

[NYMinute]

33. Go Joe Go!! K&R

[radical noodle]

34. It's not a shock to me

I live in Florida. If you think a bunch of retired folks would vote for Sanders, you'd be delusional. And we have a big AA population here too, along with people who fled Castro.

[yardwork]

35. I believe it. South Floridians don't like Castro.

[Sancho]

36. I'm not surprised..

All I hear down here is Biden and Bloomberg. With Bloomberg out, Biden should win easily.

[tritsofme]

37. Double digits, let alone viability, looking questionable at this point!

[NurseJackie]

40. Bernie is NOT EVEN VIABLE!!! He'll get ZERO delegates in Florida. Devastating!

[Celerity]

49. well, he might win some at district level, but he will surely not have many nt

[NurseJackie]

59. That's true! It will be an overall net LOSS in delegates. He'll fall further and further behind.

His campaign can't cut the mustard so he'll never ketchup.

[Celerity]

66. Lol at ketchup

[wryter2000]

41. Holy crap

Even if it's a bit off, that's huge

[relayerbob]

42. No shock at all

HRC cleaned BS' clock in 2016 in Florida, and that was without as much of the Castro crap being floated. Also, a much older demographic.

[calimary]

43. My guess: Bernie's saying something positive about Fidel Castro

would make Florida a nonstarter for Bernie.

The reality is - if you’re “doing well with young people,” you’re NOT necessarily doing well, if they don’t show up to VOTE. And the reality is - they don’t. Which is a shame.

Who DOES show up to vote? Older people. AND older people of color. Probably because they’ve been around long enough to see, understand, and remember. And it’s the older demographic that “gets” why bringing up Castro is a BIG mistake. They remember the Cuban missile crisis and the “Commie 90 miles off our shores.”

Praising Castro is just stupid. Bringing Castro up in the first place was just stupid. Especially for a self-proclaimed “socialist”! Especially when the very word “socialist” spooks a huge chunk of the public. Lordy, can you say CLUELESS?!?!? And Florida has such a sizeable Cuban demographic - and they remember Castro and not in any positive sense. Is Bernie that stuck in his ivory tower that he does not realize this? That there’s no way you can sell “socialist” and make people warm to it? It’s a labeling thing. One can argue “it’s just a word.” Maybe, but it’s still a fucking LOADED word that evokes some of our most basic fears of totalitarianism that have creeped Amerian ca out for decades. And fears that deep and that visceral take a LONG time to overcome.

It does no good to try to explain about “the issues”. It does no good to try to explain the fine points of what Bernie says we should be doing and enacting as public policy. Nobody has time for that. As has been said before, “if you’re explaining, you’re losing.” We’ve had decades to imprint on, and internalize, the very simple and visceral meme “Socialism = Bad.” And when that impression has had decades to seep all the way into the American bone marrow, it’s a LOSER. And all the “well it SHOULDN’T be” arguments, even while sensible and justifiable, won’t change that. I suspect the demographics who actually show up to vote in Florida will RUN, not walk, to support Biden. I can’t help but suspect that Bernie’s numbers in Florida, if he had any of significance, will head toward the basement.

Campaign Rule Number One: DO NOT hand your opponent free ammo. DO NOT give your opponent ANY opening of ANY size or shape! PERIOD. Bernie, for Pete’s sake, WHAT ON EARTH WERE YOU THINKING???”

[splunge63]

44. neck and neck, amirite?

Sanders is done

[LizBeth]

45. Throw in Bloomberg 14 and bring 75% to Biden.

[grantcart]

46. sorry missed this OP

wouldn't have reposted it had I seen it

lets keep this kicked to the top of the page

[highplainsdem]

47. Just saw that checking 538. So much for Sanders thinking he has a chance there.

[Gothmog]

48. sanders' comments on Castro

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Turin_C3PO]

50. He might get all of the delegates.

That would be nice and it would put him that much closer to the 1991 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.

[BGBD]

53. Is it really shocking

if it's about what you expect?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

54. It probably wasn't a good idea for Bernie to say nice things about Castro in Florida.

[drray23]

55. according to the 538 model Biden will cross 1991 by April 28.

At that point, Bernie should step down since he will be eliminated .

[Squinch]

56. BS is throwing away any relevance he might ever have had with two hands.

[OrlandoDem2]

57. I just risked my life to go vote early for Joe!

You never know who has the virus.

[marlakay]

62. Even I want him to win and I agree

More with Bernie’s issues. The way things are America is just not ready sadly for them and I don’t believe Bernie is the one to lead on it because some of his followers are causing too many problems.

Then there is this virus, I heard Joe talk about it and I felt comforted. We sorely need some empathy right now in this country.

We are literally starving for it.

Bernie is a good kind man that has worked hard for many years but just like all the others this isn’t his time.

That said I still won’t be changing from undecided because my heart is still with Liz.

[Tarheel_Dem]

64. I honestly believe BS probably reaches viability, but not much more. nt

[BidenBacker]

65. Biden Won't Waffle

unless there's ice cream in it.

[zak247]

67. Early win in November

On election day well know early; if Biden wins Florida and Pennsylvania he's in.

Those early states we can know by 7 pm.


This is why Bernie can't win.

[helpisontheway]

69. I hope Biden walks away with every single delegate.

Sanders wants to destroy our nominee because he is going to lose again. He is just pissed because the moderates decided to support one candidate instead of letting him win my default.

[Gothmog]

71. This will hurt sanders

Link to tweet

?s=20

[oasis]

72. Bernie on foreign policy:

Castro has much appeal but Paris Accord is no big deal.

[Traym]

73. I expect a 30% victory

On Tuesday.