It's all about the delegates now...

[SidDithers]

and the delegate math just doesn't favour Bernie.

Winning MI by 1%, as Bernie did in 2016, might be a moral victory, but would net only a couple delegates.

Bernie needs a resounding victory in MI, between 10% and 20%, in order try to claw into Biden's delegate lead.

Similarly for WA. Narrow victories won't do it, because Biden's going to win big in MS and could net 15-20 delegates.

There are 365 delegates available on Mar 10. (including Democrats Abroad)

If Bernie is a net delegate loser or even a slim net delegate winner (less than +20) on Mar 10, then his campaign is done.

If Bernie is a moderate delegate winner (+40 to +50) then his campaign will live until Mar 17.

If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race.

I believe that the results from Mar 10 will fall into the first category.

Sid

[Demsrule86]

1. Sid you did it...good. This is a great post...and went through it carefully and

booked marked it...thanks! Very helpful .

[SidDithers]

4. Let's revisit this on Mar 11, see how I did...

Sid

[Cha]

2. Thank you for your analysis, Sid.

[SidDithers]

5. Heya Cha...

Sid

[Cha]

7. Edge of my seat again..

Aloha, Sid~

[oasis]

3. "Joementum" like the Blue Wave, will not be denied.

Biden's the one who'll get it done.

DEMOCRAT

[SCantiGOP]

6. The Bible (Nate Silver's 538) agrees

It currently has Biden's odds at 7 out of 8, and Bernie at 1 in 50.

If you want to bet the long shot, Tulsi is <1 in 100. "Less than" 1 could mean her odds are at hundreds of thousands to one.

[sheshe2]

8. Let's make it so!

Thanks, Sid.

[RDavisJ1]

9. We've come to the same conclusion

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287642099

The bad news for Bernie is March 17th is looking worse for him.

[SidDithers]

10. Kick...nt

Sid

[MineralMan]

11. Good analysis, Sid.

[showblue22]

12. How many delegates do you think Biden will get tomorrow? nt

[SidDithers]

14. Pure guess - I say Biden is +75 delegates on the night...

so 220 Biden, 145 Sanders.

Which is exactly the opposite of what Sanders needs.

Sid

[SidDithers]

15. Not a bad guess...

Here's how the delegates are shaking out after last night, according to The Green Papers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D

MS Biden +32
MO Biden +20
MI Biden +21
ID Biden +2
ND Sanders +2
WA Tie

Total Biden +73

I thought Democrats Abroad was also a Mar 10 result, but that's when voting closes. Results for DA are due Mar 23.

Obviously, results may still change a bit, but probably not by much.

Sid

[William769]

13. Kick & recommended.