Florida poll shows Biden with staggering 44-point lead over Sanders

[Denis Enko]

By GARY FINEOUT, Politico
03/12/2020 05:02 AM EDT

TALLAHASSEE — Joe Biden is in line to deliver a knockout punch to Bernie Sanders in Florida in Tuesday‘s Democratic primary, according to a new poll that gives the former vice president a staggering 44-point lead over his opponent.

Biden is lapping Sanders in voter support, with support from 66 percent of likely Democratic primary voters to 22 percent for Sanders, according to a University of North Florida poll taken March 5-10.

The findings land just after Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, on Wednesday vowed to stay in the presidential race despite taking a multi-state beatdown in the past two weeks. Biden has 864 delegates to Sanders’ 710, and Florida has 219 grabs. Voters there go to the polls March 17.

“This is down to a two-man race and Biden is looking toward a blowout in Florida,” said Michael Binder, the director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab. Sanders, he said, “is facing a do-or-die debate on Sunday if he hopes to swing the momentum.”

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/11/new-poll-shows-biden-with-a-staggering-44-point-lead-over-sanders-1266598

Actually, I have no problem the Senator staying in the race. For right now. And I am very distrustful of polls (check my sig) .BUT, if Joe whips Bernie anywhere near as thoroughly as this poll is indicating, Sanders needs to drop out on Wednesday.

[Cha]

1. Great.. the more the better.. BS needs to get

the message more loud and clear evidently.

[zackymilly]

8. Will bs ever get the message no matter how bad he loses? n/t

[Cha]

24. Yeah, you're right

[redstatebluegirl]

27. Yes, if he loses by a huge margin he may get the hint.

But I doubt it...

[Cha]

29. Or not.

[redstatebluegirl]

30. You betcha! Hi Cha!

[Cha]

32. Aloha, redstatbluegirl!

[Aquaria]

2. I was going to post somewhere that I expected something between

MO and MS numbers for Biden in FL.

Glad to see a solid poll backing up that prediction.

[Aquaria]

3. Oh--and if you know what to look for in polls

You can trust them. They're far more accurate than you realize.

Scary accurate.

As for this particular poll, it has some very strong indicators that it's reliable. First of all, it has has a 2.5% Margin of error. That is crazy good. 3% is considered the gold standard. If you're under that, then your poll is more likely to be reliable.

Second, the poll comes from UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab, and they have a good reputation for reliable polling. I think 538 gives them an A/B grade, which means they're solid. Maybe not the very best, but definitely quite trustworthy. When the final results come out, they won't be far off.

Unless there's some kind of breakdown of the system, like undue election interference.

[OKNancy]

4. Turnout??

I wonder if turnout will be much lower especially with older voters.

[Aquaria]

5. Florida allows absentee voting for all registered voters.

Anyone who requests an absentee ballot can get one, and plenty of people vote that way

As long as they know the option exists.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. I voted absentee for Bloomberg in Florida several weeks ago

I'll have plenty of company. The ballots were sent out very early. That's why some of the numbers for Bloomberg, etc. may look bloated compared to expectation.

As always -- situational influence

[Jarqui]

6. That's the third recent poll like that for Florida

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html#polls

Biden could close to double his delegate lead in that state alone.

Sanders lost all four upcoming states: AZ, FL, IL & OH in 2016 and is badly behind in three of them this year and significantly behind in Ohio.

Next Tuesday is probably going to be his worst day yet in terms of losing delegates to Biden and potentially his worst day in terms of losing popular vote to Biden. Biden could add more than one million votes to his 1.5 million lead next Tuesday.

The following week, Sanders will get clobbered in GA.

I think the debate this Sunday is a wobbly Hail Mary being tossed desperately by a candidate severely lacking in arm strength.

[ramen]

13. Sanders chances are pretty minimal now, for sure.

Everything's coming up Biden. But as far as the hail Mary you are seeing, I think it's more likely that Sanders is trying to make sure that the policy principles which are Democratic principles regarding things like liveable wage, health care, etc stay in the discussion.

I would expect Sanders to drop out next week barring some unexpected turnaround of reality.

[Jarqui]

15. I've heard it alleged that he's trying to add delegates to improve

his position to "negotiate" on policies.

There is a part of me that thinks the Biden steamroller should just run over him and move on.

You do not have to hijack the primary after you've lost to enhance your negotiating position. Things like arguing and making your case on the merits seem more fruitful and helpful.

At this juncture, if Bernie is dragging this out to haggle for his policies, I'd just squish him because he's doing something detrimental to the party and detrimental to beating Donald Trump.

I say that while preferring Bernie's policies.

We need to focus on beating Donald Trump because if we don't Bernie's policy pressure will be about as fruitful as it was in 2016 = inactionable because we don't have the power.

If Bernie's policies are as good as he thinks they are, he should not have to twist Biden's arm to get him to embrace some of them.

[ramen]

17. I haven't heard that and don't think it would be a great idea as a strategy

but as far as squishing him, I think that we need every voter we can get, so that squishing would be best done in a way that would leave Sanders' supporters ready to vote Biden in November..

[Jarqui]

19. He's way down in the polls. Squishing him is just carrying on

with the primary racking up delegates so that Biden gets the majority.

If Sanders is soundly defeated then he has little to say or arm twist Biden on policy.

After he's been crushed the next two Tuesday's, I have a feeling Sanders will realize the jig is up.

I was a Sanders supporter in 2016. I made the transition to Clinton but with great difficulty.

This time around, Sanders supporters have a choice: Biden or Trump?
You could say they can support a third party but that's like a vote for Trump.

If Sanders supporters really think the best chance for them to get some of Bernie's policies in place is by reelecting Donald Trump, good luck to them. I think they would be horribly wrong. I'm not too worried about it because this time around, so few would think that.

[Aquaria]

33. Well, you keep telling yourself that

If it makes you feel better.

His behavior says that it’s his ego keeping him in the race because he’s convinced that he’s the savior of liberalism.

Which he’s not, but he’s started to believe his own hype about it.

[honest.abe]

7. Wow! 66-22

Looks like Sanders will be viable however... barely.

[beachbumbob]

9. complete humiliation of sanders from here on out and the perhaps the

destruction of the "leftist revolution" as well. Pie in the sky doesn't work

[ramen]

14. The pivot on DU about this conversation has been fascinating.

When Sanders was briefly the frontrunner, many on this site (not you, beachbumbob, to my memory, this is just an example) were proclaiming that things like health care and liveable wage and public funding of universities were Democratic policy platform keystones. Now they are being derided as pie in the sky unicorn jizz Marxism. What memo did I miss? Is this the part where we decide those things never mattered in the first place?

If Biden had a policy in favor of caning or some other vile shit I would still vote for him over Trump, to be clear. But if you want other Sanders supporters to jump on that train then posts/statements like this are quite counterproductive. I want as many of his supporters not just at the polls for the Democratic nominee in November, but also pounding the ground and volunteering and getting the vote out between now and then.

[Demsrule86]

23. He only won one small state.

Biden won more than a dozen.

[mountain grammy]

16. Yeah I remember when JFK gave

A speech on universal health care. That was before Medicare was passed and Civil Rights. All considered pie in the sky. Let’s give up all our ideals just pie in the sky. Right?

[redstatebluegirl]

31. No we don't have to, but if we don't win nothing happens.

I will never give up on my ideals, but I am realistic about how to get what I want.

[mountain grammy]

34. I'm realistic about this election too

And 2016, and every election when I voted for the Democratic candidate, which was every presidential election since my first in 1972.. I thought about Ross Perot because of NAFTA, but time to vote, I was realistic and voted for Bill..

I will vote for Biden, even though I know he will compromise away any hope of ever getting single payer healthcare for all. Who knows? Maybe he’ll surprise me. I hope so..but I will vote for him and proclaim my vote with $, letters, bumper stickers, whatever it takes..

[Lonestarblue]

10. I am disappointed that Sanders is not dropping out.

Based on his recent comments, he seems poised to use the next debate to try to force Biden to answer questions designed to show voters how much better Bernie would be as the nominee. Voters have spoken, and at this stage Bernie risks being a spoiler. I hope he recognizes that taking this fight to the convention and using the next months to damage Joe as much as possible risks another four years for Trump.

[honest.abe]

11. This looks like a mandate for Biden's moderate approach to progressive policy.

Why should we care about a candidate and their demands who is getting blown away in primary after primary after primary??

[Ford_Prefect]

12. As much joy as you find in the poll results, You may want to consider...

that not everyone feels that Biden represents their views of how the party should go forward.

The purpose of having the primaries is to shape the future of the party by presenting issues as well as candidates, not only to elect a face or personality. If the party can assume a monolithic stature then we have lost our democracy. One might as well say that the candidate who collects the largest number of endorsements and donations by a certain date is the winner and therefore has the right to determine our future...with no inconvenient need to count votes or further discuss issues.

[NCProgressive]

22. The tribe has spoken

[mountain grammy]

36. Well said

It’s all about democracy, and exactly why democracy is in such peril with a monolithic party, aka the GOP, in power. No debate, no discussion, just my way or the highway.

[MiniMe]

18. Not surprising since Sanders praised Castro

Praised Castro for certain things. As soon as he said what he said, he lost Florida.

[Vogon_Glory]

37. When Bernie made ythose remarks, he looked to be riding high

In other states and guys like me (Who really DON’T want Donald Trump to win a second term) were wondering how the Good Guys could win the general election with Bernie alienating the centrist-minded voters Democrats need to win our races. I can’t say that I’m sorry that Joe is the current front-runner in the Democratic primaries.

Taking principled stands that lead to defeat may be very well for more normal times, but not when the opposition party seeks to institute authoritarian oligarchic minority rule with the rule of law subsumed to tyranny.

[Scurrilous]

20. All the voting blocs in FL dislike him and the debate will not change that.

These blowout losses go on his permanent record and stand in stark contrast to what he's been saying for 4 years about the popularity of revolution, change, movement, direction blah blah. A complete and utter rejection. His political acumen might now be questioned. LOL Could it be possible Bernie was wrong about everything? Go back to leafy Vermont already.

[NCProgressive]

21. Who woulda thunk

that singin praises of Fidel Castro would be so disastrous?

[Vogon_Glory]

38. I'm sure it looked harmless in Burlington, VT. N/t

[FloridaBlues]

26. Yes if this holds yes Bernie exit should be by next week.

[RandySF]

28. It's over

There’s no coming back from that.

[Gothmog]

35. sanders not dropping out is going to hurt him

sanders not dropping out may help Biden. sanders keeps on losing primaries by large margins nnly strenghten's Joe's position https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/11/no-surprise-bernie-sanders-is-still-all-about-himself-never-party/

Sanders’s remaining in the race should serve several salutary purposes for the party and the country. First, seeing him lose overwhelmingly week after week will dispel the notion that the Democratic Party has moved left, or that he is in a dominant position to negotiate with the overwhelming winner. It’s not clear why the Biden camp should “give” Sanders anything.

Second, it is good to keep Biden in fighting form, continuing to boost turnout and showing, as he did in Philadelphia, how presidential he is. Biden can pivot to the general election, essentially ignoring Sanders. (His planned speech on the coronavirus is the perfect opportunity to leave Sanders out of the discussion entirely.)....

Whoever is to replace Sanders as the standard-bearer for the left — hopefully someone as smart and wonky as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — will need to learn how to win elections. (Hint: It is not by scaring voters or attaching oneself to the socialist label.) When in office, a new generation of leaders on the left will need to learn the art of deal-making rather than waste years, as Sanders has, rabble-rousing but accomplishing nothing. Unlike Sanders, Warren (or whoever else takes the reins) will not be burdened by a record of reflexively praising dictators nor be driven to attack fellow Democrats.

Sanders will end the race at some point, a diminished figure. In retrospect, his wins in 2016 will be seen more as an anti-Hillary Clinton vote than a pro-Sanders vote. How he behaves at Sunday’s debate will determine whether he leaves a bad taste in the mouths of Democrats.

[garybeck]

39. what about biden vs trump in FL ?

[Awsi Dooger]

40. Basically tied with amazingly low number of undecideds

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

[Gothmog]

41. sanders comments on Castro are hurting sanders

Link to tweet