If people over 60 stay home on Tuesday, does Sanders get more delegates?

[thesquanderer]

We know older people are voting heavily for Biden, while Sanders' strength is younger voters. If the 60+ crowd turns out in much lower numbers than usual due to suggestions that people over 60 minimize leaving their homes, maybe Sanders could end up doing unexpectedly well this Tuesday?

[Squinch]

1. Sanders's strength is NOT younger voters. Sanders has NEVER brought out younger voters.

I don't know why this myth persists, but it is nothing but a myth.

The one election in which younger voters came out in large numbers (2018) Sanders's followers were decimated and moderates won all over the country.

Sanders does NOT bring out younger voters.

[thesquanderer]

6. You're mixing up two different things.

re: "Sanders does NOT bring out younger voters." -- Yes, that is true, he's not bringing them out in the numbers he expected.

re: "Sanders's strength is NOT younger voters." -- No, that is false, the younger voters who DO come out have overwhelmingly gone for Sanders over Biden, making them his strength, while of course the older voters have gone overwhelmingly for Biden.

Sanders has been doing better than Biden with voters under 45, Biden has been doing better with 45+. If those over 60 turn out in smaller than usual numbers due to COVD-19 fears, then even without Sanders turning out any more voters, those under 45 will now make up a greater percentage of the votes and that would help Sanders.

Here are the stats I'm talking about:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/youth-vote-sanders-biden-super-tuesday/index.html

[Squinch]

10. Not really. Given the percentages of young vs. old who vote in your own source,

that is 35% being younger than 42, (with presumably a much smaller percentage in their twenties and thrities) he'd still need to bring out an enormous number of "youth" to overcome older voters, even if a sizeable proportion of older voters stay home.

And he's never done this. And he never will.

[thesquanderer]

14. But Sanders does not need to bring out ANY new voters under 45...

...for them to represent a substantially larger percentage of the voting total, IF a substantial number of the usual over-65 voters choose to stay home. That can alter the delegate distribution. That's my point.

Not that I'm expecting any Sanders landslide Tuesday regardless. His polling has been going down, and these states are not so friendly toward him to begin with. But if turnout is down for older (Biden-leading) voters, he could have a stronger showing than he might have had otherwise. because a greater percentage of those who DO vote will be from the younger/Sanders-leaning demographic.

[Squinch]

15. Sure, squanderer. BS is totally going to rack up those delegates. Because of all those

kids voting for him.

[thesquanderer]

19. Under-45 are not kids. ...

From the linked article...

Sanders won an astounding 61% to Biden's 17% among voters under 30 years old. He even beat Biden by 20 points (43% to 23%) among those between 30 years old and 44 years old.

If "voters under 45" change from being a minority of the voters to being a majority of the voters--which doesn't require ANY new voters to come out, but rather would also be the natural result of many over-45 voters NOT coming out--that could noticeably change the delegate count. I'm not saying he'll "totally rack up" delegates, but he may perform better than expected.

[Squinch]

22. Yes, so you said. So we'll just wait for those results that support your

argument, where BS racks up all those masses of delegates.

That's totally going to happen. You wait for it.

[thesquanderer]

27. I'm not saying I expect it. I just thought it was an interesting possibility to consider. n/t

[Squinch]

29. Fascinating.

[Thekaspervote]

23. Where? The youth vote 18-29 on ST#2 was 7%. On ST it was 6%

[thesquanderer]

36. My numbers were from the linked article.

I don't know where your 6% figure is from, but I provided the source for my numbers.

Looking across all the contests with an exit poll, Sanders won an astounding 61% to Biden's 17% among voters under 30 years old. He even beat Biden by 20 points (43% to 23%) among those between 30 years old and 44 years old...The problem for Sanders is the under 45 group make up a smaller piece of the pie. In no Super Tuesday state with an exit poll did those under 45 years old make up more than 42% of voters. Those under 45 years old were just 35% of the electorate in the median state.

So (1) we're not talking about just 18-29, and (2) the 18-45 who Sanders does very well with make up a lot more than 6%. And the way percentages work, IF older people turn out in lower numbers, that percentage will go up even if no additional under-45 voters turn out.

[Thekaspervote]

28. Here's a pix of a FL airport terminal over the weekend..

https://www.google.com/search?q=picture+of+packed+florida+airport+this+weekend&client=safari&hl=en-us&prmd=nisv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjqm9zh3pzoAhWHbs0KHeoBCgkQ_AUoAnoECA0QAg#imgrc=qMHHcz4M8YehOM

[jimfields33]

30. Regardless. I hope Bernie benefits from this

Biden benefitted by pulling him along. Sanders should get the same ease.

[Squinch]

31. What are you talking about?

[jimfields33]

55. How extremely easy Biden has had the primary handed to him

[Squinch]

57. ... I can't even... More BS entitlement. It never stops.

[jimfields33]

73. I know. So true. Biden does seem like he's owed.

Thanks for the awesome reply.

[Squinch]

75. Gosh. The "I know you are but what am I" ripost. How interesting. So few use that at our ages.

[jimfields33]

78. I got caught.

[Blue_true]

82. At the core, socialists and rightwing totalitarians don't believe in rule by voting. nt

[grossproffit]

93. It's even worse this time around. Unbelievable the lies his supporters tell.

[LongtimeAZDem]

60. Yeah, all it took was a lifetime of integrity, service, and actual accomplishments

SMFH

[William769]

62. Yes Bernie handed it to Biden on a silver platter

Because of the way he ran his campaign. His top aides, betting on a group of voters that didn't show up to vote, his magical mystery tour of what he wants & list the goes on & on.

Have a beautiful Democratic Establishment Day!

[brush]

63. It has nothing to do with it being easy, the party and country will not elect a socialist.

[Blue_true]

81. Voters are "handing" the primary to Biden. Any other claim taps into the same

foolishness that Trump traffics in.

[grossproffit]

92. Oh FFS!

[Demsrule86]

48. Sanders needs to do one thing only...concede...and I am predicting right now that the numbers will

be worse for Sanders than the polls suggest, and the polls suggest a blowout for Biden. I know older voters...I belong to things that include voters of all ages...book club, bridge (I love bridge)etc...although I am not of the that age...most older voters I know feel...if I get this and die...I die...In the meantime while I am here I will do my best to make it a better place for those I leave behind and that means nominating Biden who can win a General, thus ending the primary officially. Although it is already over mathematically. I would add that, the nursing homes in Ohio voted two weeks ago...early voting. My sis in law who is in one reported that she has found no one in her home who voted for Sanders. ...bookmarking this for Tuesday.

[tirebiter]

79. Biden benefitted by uniting a majority of the Party

[treestar]

66. that sounds more like young voters don't vote as reliably

for Sanders as thought - or that they vote for moderates (2018)

[Squinch]

68. Absolutely. The only time younger voters came out in larger numbers than

usual, they voted for moderates. And the Bernie-backed candidates and Our Revolution candidates were demolished.

It's all a lot of smoke and mirrors. BS has been saying forever that he can rally younger voters, but the opposite has been true forever.

[George II]

2. Most people over 60 are retired, they vote in the middle of the day when there are few people.

[thesquanderer]

3. That doesn't mean some number of them won't choose to stay home to be safest. (n/t)

[Demsrule86]

49. Why are you pushing Sanders with a pic of Joe on your post? Sanders is done no matter what.

[thesquanderer]

52. My OP did not "push" Sanders, it brought up an interesting possible voting dynamic that I hadn't...

...seen discussed, Because this is, you know, a discussion board.

There is a pic of Joe in my post because, as the text says, "if I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for Joe Biden." Though I wish it could still say Elizabeth Warren.

[Blue_true]

85. Your heart does not seem to be 100% for Biden in the primary.

Though I respect your vow to support Biden in the General. If you are more oriented toward Sanders in the primary, you should declare that and tell people why you switched. I don't bet for good reason, maybe now you understand why.

[thesquanderer]

88. My heart is with Warren, but she's not an option. It was a tough decision between Joe and Bernie.

Both have their strengths and weaknesses. But I took the question literally. If I had to vote today, who would I pick? And while it's not a blowout, my feeling is that Joe would probably be stronger against Trump, and a more effective president, and better able to handle the transition from the Trump nightmare (a topic for another post, perhaps).

Though I don't get your reference to betting!

[Blue_true]

90. My reference to betting is when a person does, he or she often

end up in a corner that they don't want to be in.

I get where you are, you are more for Biden, but Sanders has a warm spot in your heart also' maybe because of the policies that he talks about (but Warren would have been more likely to make realities).

[thesquanderer]

91. Correct. I also have a warm spot in my heart for Buttigieg. We had many capable candidates. n/t

[Blue_true]

84. The person lost a bet on Super Tuesday 2.

The bet was that Bernie was going to do well (that person's wager), if not, the person would switch to Biden. So Biden is the chosen candidate, but the person is clearly very pro-Sanders. I am ok with the person switching the candidate choice back to Sanders, leaving only true supporters of Biden in the primary and beyond with him as their candidate of choice. The person has clearly stated that he or she will support Biden 100% in the General, and I have seen nothing to indicate that pledge isn't true.

[Indykatie]

77. Old People Like Me Are Probably More Likely to Vote Early or Vote Via Mail Ballot

Anyone waiting until election day to vote if they have other options is taking a big risk.

[Blue_true]

83. That is what I saw when I early voted in Florida. I caught a break and went

around 11. I was there for about 4 minutes and saw only older voters.

[Old Terp]

4. Getting old is not for sissies. And we vote.

[brush]

65. Yep, you don't get old being stupid.

[Blue_true]

87. Yep.

[Blue_true]

86. Yep. The fact that you are old is testament that you have avoided a lot of falling rocks

in life. Younger people often fail to see that and gain some wisdom.

[MineralMan]

5. It's more likely that younger people won't vote.

Any excuse is enough for them. Older people will vote. Perhaps in slightly lower numbers, but they'll vote.

Biden will do just fine. He's getting votes from all age groups, you know?

[thesquanderer]

7. re: "He's getting votes from all age groups, you know?"

Everyone gets votes from all age groups. But not in even proportions.

From the Super Tuesday results discussed at https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/youth-vote-sanders-biden-super-tuesday/index.html

Looking across all the contests with an exit poll, Sanders won an astounding 61% to Biden's 17% among voters under 30 years old. He even beat Biden by 20 points (43% to 23%) among those between 30 years old and 44 years old.

Sanders, however, struggled mightily with older voters. Biden won by 22 points (42% to 20%) with voters 45 years old to 64 years old. With senior citizens (those 65 years and older), Sanders managed to come in third with 15%

So if the 65+ crowd voting population drops well below usual turnout levels, and the under-45 crowd stays the same, then the under-45s will have a greater influence on the results.

[MineralMan]

8. But those younger voters turned out in lower numbers than they

did in 2016, and they make up only a small fraction of the total voter count.

It doesn't matter what percentage of them votes for whom, if only a small percentage of them turns out to vote.

Numbers matter. Go look some of them up.

[thesquanderer]

13. re: "Numbers matter. Go look some of them up."

No need to be snide. Obviously, I did look up numbers, I provided a link.

Besides the passage I quoted, the article also points out that, yes, older people voted in greater numbers than younger, which of course is why Biden wins despite Sanders doing so much better among younger voters. As the article says, "In no Super Tuesday state with an exit poll did those under 45 years old make up more than 42% of voters. Those under 45 years old were just 35% of the electorate in the median state."

My point was, imagine now that the number of voters over 60 or over 65 drop enough that, even with NO additional turnout of people under 45, the people under 45 now end up making up, say, 50-60% of the voters instead of the lower percentage they normally make up. That could alter the delegate distribution.

[Thekaspervote]

37. Sanders vote totals from 16 41+% from 2020 25.1%.

Across the board voters are not turning up for sanders.

Joe is the one bringing in new voters. He over performs as sanders under performs.

To try and spin the pandemic on how it will play out is unknown! The numbers here are the only stats that are a known

[Thekaspervote]

24. Agree...they have a new excuse every time!

[Blue_true]

89. After a person passes a certain age, around 40 years old, voting

is what they do in all elections, regardless of the level. Because they have seen the consequences of not voting, or of setting impossible to achieve purity standards.

[Sloumeau]

9. What you are saying is quite possible.

However, I am hoping that the desire to remove Donald Trump will allow people to patriotically go to the polls and vote for their preferred candidate. Yet, this is another reason why Vote-By-Mail should be implemented in every state and for every election as soon as possible. We have it here in Arizona and it works well. Our Presidential Preference election is this Tuesday, but I have already voted for Biden weeks ago.

This Tuesday, my 84-year-old mother will be working as an election supervisor here in Arizona--working a 15 hour day on her feet so that people can vote. Her hands will be washed, hand sanitizer will be flowing regularly, she and all of the election staff will be wearing gloves, and she will keep her distance. Our nation has fought numerous wars to maintain our Democracy and our right to vote. I feel OK encouraging people to vote as long as they take proper precautions.

My mom has told her staff to all bring gloves for the election. I recommend everyone who does not have gloves to get some and to wear them whenever they go out, and to wash their hands before they put on their gloves. I am unwilling to let coronavirus deprive America of our democracy.

[LiberalFighter]

11. We will have to wait and see.

Those in that age group will likely know the options available to them if they don't want to vote in person. Whether they take advantage of those options I don't know.

[thesquanderer]

12. Yes, those are some other unknowns...

...or at least *I* don't know the answers. e.g. How many of Tuesday's states had early voting? What was the date cutoff (specifically, could people vote as recently as these last couple of days when there has been a lot more awareness that older people should try to stay home as much as possible)? What percentage of seniors tend to do early voting and/or are familiar with and comfortable doing it?

[OilemFirchen]

20. In Ohio, we can vote today and tomorrow.

Absentee ballots can be dropped off through Tuesday.

It's not a concern here.

[Demsrule86]

50. I am leaving in a few minutes...and we have had early voting since February and absentee voting as

well. I am in the Cleveland area. The nursing homes had people come into help them vote two weeks ago.

[MaryMagdaline]

16. Most over 60 voted by mail or early voted

My anecdotal evidence: I don’t have a single friend over 60 in Florida who has not already voted

They, like me, considered it an essential trip outside the home or they mailed their ballot

[mcar]

17. Many people have already voted in Florida

The FL Democratic party had a big vote by mail push, and early voting just ended.

[MaryMagdaline]

18. This

[Blue_true]

94. The FDP should push in-person early voting.

Mail-in ballots have to go through the USPS, if they are not dropped off at the registrar's office. All it takes in November is for another MAGA bomber of MAGA threatener to show up in November before Election Day and close down post offices, to hand Trump Florida, because people mailed in ballots instead of doing in-person early voting on one of the 11 days that Florida has such voting.

[mcar]

95. I mailed ours in weeks ago

Checked on the SOE website last week and saw that they had been received. It's not that hard.

[drray23]

21. It may also deplete young voters even further.

Universities are closing and its spring break. They go home. Those who vote usually are registered in the college town. If they go home, they won't vote.

[thesquanderer]

25. Good point that it could be a factor. But...

...the percentage of under-45 voters who are in college is small. Which I mention because the stats I've been referencing show that Sanders does much better than Biden with voters under 45, not merely those 18-21.

And BTW, those 18-21 year olds who go away to school and come back to their parents' homes when school is closed are probably a minority even among 18-21 year olds. Many 18-21 year olds don't go to college at all. Many who DO go to college go to local community colleges or commuter schools. And even many who have gone away actually establish full-time (non-dorm) residence in their new city, especially in their later years.

Spring break could also have some of the opposite effect of what you're talking about (or what it usually would). Kids who would normally go away for spring break may now be staying put because so many travel events are being cancelled.

So... yeah, you've brought up another interesting factor... and another bunch of unknowns.

[drray23]

26. They are closing the dorms.

Its creating a huge mess. Kids have to evacuate within short notice and go home.

[jimfields33]

34. Everyone is suffering

If you want to fight this, you need to deal with minor discomforts.

[drray23]

39. You missed my point.

We were talking about the fact kids will go home since they cant stay in the dorms. Hence, they may have problems voting because they are probably registered in the college town.
Universities are doing the right thing but it was on short notice and is creating a lot of disruption.

[DarthDem]

32. No

Biden leads in all age groups. This is something that needs no worry.

[Thekaspervote]

38. Oh my!!! The voice of sanity....thank you

[thesquanderer]

45. "Biden leads in all age groups."? It certainly wasn't that way on Super Tuesday,

as evidenced by the numbers I have linked to and referenced numerous times in this thread.

[DarthDem]

58. it changed

[mucifer]

33. Here in IL they are encouraging early voting and vote by mail

Early voting people trickle in. No lines. That's what I did. I voted for Elizabeth Warren BTW.

[beachbumbob]

35. most people over 60 already early voted, I know in Illinois that is aways the case

same in Florida

[aeromanKC]

40. Yes

Biden's Victory margins will be smaller on Tuesday for example in Florida instead of winning by 60% he'll only win by 40%

Biden will not lose any states due to the decrease of seniors coming out because they stay home due to the virus

[thesquanderer]

44. Winning states does not matter, only winning delegates.

That said, while (to use your example) winning by 40 points instead of 60 points would mean fewer delegates for Biden and more for Sanders, it still leaves Biden getting more delegates than Sanders.

[aeromanKC]

46. Agree

And I guess the possibility of Bernie not reaching viability goes out the window as well. That sucks. Florida could have been a Biden sweep!! Hopefully the nights states sweep will be enough to send a message

[brush]

69. Sanders is playing catch up and that's a losing game. He's just prologing the...

inevitable, which is the same game he played in 2016.

He should just suspend already and get it over with.

[Demsrule86]

41. People over 60 are not staying home...I am voting today ...would have done it last week but

I was canvassing and it went late. Those who think Corona will save Sanders are wrong. The young have even more reason to stay home and I know people now in their early 30's who have Corona and are in intensive care in critical condition. This could hurt everyone...in order to save the planet and our Republic, we must end this primary by voting and move on to defeating Trump.

[redstatebluegirl]

42. Most of my friends are over 60 and every single one of them plan to vote no matter what.

We understand the terror this administration poses to our democracy. I am living in Oklahoma, but am originally from Illinois and lived in 4 other states. I have checked in with my friends in states that vote on Tuesday, many of them have chosen absentee ballots in order to avoid going to vote, but others say they are going to vote no matter what. Sorry Bernie, we are going to do what is right for our party and the country.

[JennyMominFL]

43. Florida

Florida allows anyone of any any for any reason, to vote from home and we have been early voting for weeks. I voted 2 weeks ago, I am not sure same day voting here will drop enough to make a huge difference

[iwannaknow]

47. Even though I support Sanders and see how his campaign could benefit

I am of the opinion that the primaries should be delayed until we at least know what's going on with this virus. It's just not fair to those who are potentially more vulnerable.

[Demsrule86]

51. No, we need to end this primary now...we don't need more of Sander's scorched earth tactics against

our nominee to continue.

[blueinredohio]

53. I'm 62 and I voted early.

[onetexan]

54. This is laughable. Older ppl have risked much more for democracy & the right to vote

So they're not about to let COVID19 scare them away from the polls. Plus theres mail-in option. Never count older generations out. The country post WWII was built on their backs.

[greatauntoftriplets]

56. I voted by mail.

[Hortensis]

59. Good answer. :) We're GA in FL and also voted by mail.

Ahead of time so we can check before and after to confirm that we haven't been kicked off the rolls.

[greatauntoftriplets]

64. I know others who are doing early voting and taking sanitizer with them.

Additionally, a friend is taking some of her elderly neighbors to vote early.

[Hortensis]

70. Sure. Speaking of turning out, though,

I watched Fox yesterday, and a bit the day before. Fox started covering the epidemic all day, with some pro-Trump/anti-Dem spin, but mostly pretending denial never happened. It's short notice for this Tuesday, but here's hoping for even a very slight damping effect on Republican turnout.

[greatauntoftriplets]

71. I'll drink to the idea of Republicans staying home.

With tea.

[Hortensis]

72. For that I'll open a bottle and invite the neighbors over.

One set is a pair of gay men in late middle age from Tennessee. They'll be over for sure, but...too soon. Hope, hope.

[greatauntoftriplets]

74. What a great idea.

[William769]

61. I'm older and with a compromised immune system right now.

I'll be voting Tuesday In Florida. It's just what our generation does.

[treestar]

67. take hand sanitizer - wash hands when you get home

and don't touch your face. People should not give up their vote over this.

[Cattledog]

76. GA moved primary to May 19

[Blue_true]

80. I voted early in Florida last week around lunchtime.

I saw a total of around 8 other voters during the ~4 minutes that I was there. Every single one looked elderly. I think older voters will vote, likely early in the day before the after work rush, if they have not already voted early.