****Breaking WSJ-NBC NAT'L POLL**** Biden 52% Trump 43% Biden 61% Sanders 32%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6810602-200149-NBCWSJ-March-Poll-Final-3-14-20-Release.html

[denem]

1. Heading in the right direction - more positive now than 2019

Headed in the right direction now 37%, 8/19 33%
Off on the wrong track now 56%, 8/19 60%
=Junk Poll

[TheRickles]

2. And the Sanders/Trump matchup was....

Sanders 49%, Trump 45% - same as Biden, within the margin of error.

[Thekaspervote]

4. How is Biden 52% trump 43% the same as sanders 49% trump 45%?

[comradebillyboy]

8. Bernie math!!!!!!

[TheRickles]

10. Not Bernie math, but statistics

Since a relatively small number of people were polled here, the margin of error is fairly high - 3.27%, according to the link. In other words, any scores that are not more than 3% apart cannot be considered to be significantly different - they might be due to random fluctuations within a small sample size. Same as flipping a coin - two heads in a row isn't significant, but ten in a row would be.

Bernie got 49% vs Trump while Biden got 52% vs Trump - that's only a 3% differential between their scores, and is not a statistically significant difference. If they had interviewed 10,000 people and gotten those same results, then it'd be something to headline. But these results are only suggestive, not conclusive.

[Demsrule86]

11. Wishful thinking...and that is before the GOP ammo hit Sanders.

[Thekaspervote]

14. Wow!! Not that's some spin

[Thekaspervote]

17. Your point?

[Traym]

18. sorry. I meant to reply to the Pro-Sanders guy

[marble falls]

20. Takes a while to get your feet here! I am tooo embarrassed to even to begin to cite my misteps ...

including the yuge one I did here this morning!

[cos dem]

26. That's not how it works.

[Indykatie]

28. Are You Kidding me? Biden's Lead Over Trump is Outside the Margin of Error But Bernie's Is Not

But instead you use the poll result compare Bernie and Joe's results against each other and use the polls MOE to say they have basically the same results in the poll. The poll measures how they match up against Trump not each other.

[Doodley]

29. With Bernie math, Bernie is actually in the lead! He has the "American people" behind him, as he

likes to say.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Is 61%-32% within the margin of error?

[TheRickles]

13. Yes

Biden beats Bernie by a large and statistically very significant margin in this head-to-head. And that's why he'll almost certainly win the nomination. But the point I was trying to make is that this one limited data point shows that both Dems have similarly good shots at beating Trump in head-to-head. That's all.

[Thekaspervote]

15. No! You're using the 3.27% MOE only with sanders number. MOE works both ways

That MOE could also swing towards trump. If you add the MOE to trump against Biden he is well outside the MOE

[Kahuna7]

12. Really tho?????

[Traym]

19. Nate Silver doesn't like your "statistical tie" gimmick

Link to tweet

[DarthDem]

3. Excellent

I'd like to see more of this.

[honest.abe]

5. Good news on both accounts!

[beachbumbob]

6. once Biden is THE nominee, won;t be surprise to see his numbers hit 57-59% support

and trump 37-39%, GOP will be shitting downballot bricks

[Sloumeau]

7. This is why Trump pushed Ukraine to make up stuff about Biden. :) nt

[Stallion]

21. Looks Like a Horserace to Me

[Julian English]

22. It's news Trump and Sanders won't accept. n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

23. K&R

[SiliconValley_Dem]

24. Biden lead will grow

[uponit7771]

25. ****WHAT ABOUT SWING STATE POLLS !!?!!??!?***** National polls don't mean much

[SKKY]

27. The national poll doesn't matter folks. We need this margin...

...in the swing states. Show me MI, MN, WI, PA, OH, and FL.