Bernie takes lead in Emerson poll just out

[Laura PourMeADrink]

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/april-national-poll-bernie-takes-lead-for-democratic-nomination-mayor-pete-on-the-move

A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%.

[TexasTowelie]

1. Meanwhile, Morning Consult has Biden ahead.

Biden
31%
Sanders
23%
Harris
9%
O'Rourke
8%
Warren
7%
Buttigieg
7%
Booker
4%

It looks like one of the surveys is wrong.

[louis c]

2. The morning consult poll is more recent...

… and Biden leads in every other poll, other than Emmerson.

But even in the Emmerson poll, Biden leads Trump by 6 and Sanders only leads Trump by 3. Biden does better against Trump than Sanders, and that's the whole point of the primaries, isn't it?

Link to all the polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Decoy of Fenris]

5. If history is anything to go by, no. We didn't do that last election. It didn't end well. nt

[louis c]

6. The Russians were very positvie on BS and targeted his supporters to vote against Hillary...

...if BS wins the nomination I don't think the Russians will be too kind to him, this time.

[Decoy of Fenris]

7. The Russians won't be kind to anyone we run.

Living in fear of an unrealized possibility isn't living, it's just mindlessly existing. We just have to do the best with what we've got, and thankfully we've got a solid stable of candidates upon which to draw.

[louis c]

8. Thanks. You make my point. If the Sanders voters (too many, but not all) didn't abandon Clinton...

… and there was no Russian interference and Comey didn't re-open a false investigation, Clinton would have won by double digits. But, alas, being as it what was, history was warped.

[Decoy of Fenris]

13. There were a ton of variables, to be sure.

But to say "But Russia won't like them" is applicable to any candidate we run, and by that metric is inadmissible for that reason. If everyone we run will suffer the same "Russia won't like them", then that ceases to be an effective argument against the candidate, no matter who they are, as they will all suffer from it.

[louis c]

20. Why BS is a stronger GE candidate than any other nominee is that...

...they all can take our votes for granted. If Sanders gets nominated, he can count on those eliminated candidates supporters working their asses off to beat Trump.

2016 proved the opposite is not the case. Too many (not all) of BS supporters will abandon our candidate if BS loses, just as they did in 2106. That's why we need a candidate that can win without the temporary Democrats.

Biden-Harris is that ticket.

[sacto95834]

21. this is illogical

Assuming the facts are correct, Candidate A lost last time because X supporters didn't vote for A. But now Candidate B will win w/out X's supporters? Isn't it more logical that Candidate C, who can get X's supporters will win?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. Exact same logic should apply to impeachment

[Decoy of Fenris]

10. I'm with you on that. IMO, "math" or not, impeachment is a moral and ethical obligation. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Those numbers exemplify why we need to pick the

One with the most likelihood of beating trump and worry about the rest later. We can have our internal battles later. And its really not all about national polls we should focus solely on how well each person matches up to the devil in battleground states. I don't think Democrats in general need to be giddy about our choice. Democrats outside battleground will be fully motivated to get rid of trump because he's fucking crazy and dangerous.

[qazplm135]

26. well they are all "wrong" right now

it's way too early to give any poll much credence regardless of who is where or on top or whatnot.

[dubyadiprecession]

3. Biden hasn't announced his decision to run yet.

When he does, BS will be left in the dust.

[Snotcicles]

12. Be careful. You don't want to start calling Bernie names again. nt

[dubyadiprecession]

24. "Be careful. You don't want to start calling Bernie names again".

Are you threatening me?

[Snotcicles]

25. LOL. No I remember reading earlier today in a post where you were complaining

about one of your posts being removed for calling Bernie a pariah.
I try to never make threats. If I did they wouldn't leave doubt.

[Cha]

23. Oh I hope so!

[vsrazdem]

28. I would not be to sure of that, not according to 538

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-biden-doesnt-run-or-flops/

[True Blue American]

4. CNN has Biden ahead.

Especially in Iowa. Where it counts and is not even in yet.

[TwilightZone]

11. Emerson is an odd poll.

It's an online/phone hybrid, which would seem to be problematic, but 538 had it rated a B+ in May 2018.

[Decoy of Fenris]

15. I'm skeptical, even though their polls favor Sanders.

For them to so routinely have Sanders batting above average, when in 2016 he was polling barely higher than Trump in the same polls, makes me wonder if something's a little fishy in the numbers, or if the MoE is just hitting the max range fairly often.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. This is a dichotomy. Differential between the popularity

Of a candidate by Dems vs. the popularity among all voters. Thought about this a lot. Can't see any other explanation than the general public is more moderate. It's not the way we want it to be, but it is reality.

[Decoy of Fenris]

17. Might be. Polling algorithms in relation to sample size are above my pay grade.

Math has never been my strong suit, and I've seen some of the formula these guys hack their way through in polling. I've no desire to subject myself to that sort of torture without getting paid to do so.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. No, didn't mean to make it sound about polling

methodology, sorry.l. Just talking about high numbers among Dems for nomination vs. lower numbers when you match someone against trump in a general election. Biden does well in both. Conclusion...Biden thought of as much more moderate so has more appeal to a moderate electorate.

[Decoy of Fenris]

19. Oh, I'm with you now. Apologies, I'm a mite slow today. Doing cleaning between posts.

There's always just one more thing that needs cleaning.

Yeah, that analysis seems to be pretty spot on. The general electorate, including Independents, tend to skew more moderate than either of the extremes, so you've probably hit on it well there.

[Hortensis]

22. Well, like anyone would believe that.

You know, Laura, no matter how many polls might be dragged forward, Sanders simply can't be the preference of most Democratic voters. All the wishful thinking in the world won't make it so.
SANDERS knows: it's why he's wooing trumpsters.

To ground DUers who need it to reality, I point to the 8% Sanders is "polling" here, where everyone's actually paying attention and they all voted zealously for him. No interest in anyone else for them! That is very unlike the electorate in general right now.

Of course Sanders would be polling 800% here if his followers could only vote more than once. But they can't here, just as they won't be able to vote 1000 times each during the primaries. And if he can't win here, where passionate ones congregate in outside numbers...

Think about it.

[Gothmog]

27. Messina Says Sanders Can't Beat Trump

I agree with Jim Messina on this https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/17/messina-says-sanders-cant-beat-trump/

Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012, told ABC News that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) cannot beat President Trump in 2020.

Said Messina: “I think if you look at swing voters in this country they are incredibly focused on the economy. I think today you look at it and say that Bernie Sanders is unlikely going to be able to stand up to the constant barrage that is Donald Trump on economic issues.”