Why do you think Bernie can win this?

[Tiggeroshii]

Here's part of my reasoning for why I am so confident he's going to pull this off this year. Historical precedent is a big part about why I forecast Bernie's success in the primary and in the general election. For one, there are only a few candidates that have run in one primary and sustained throughout a large part of it, then ran again. The only one I can think of in recent history is Hillary. All others started early and dropped out around super tuesday. With Hillary, she was able to maintain the strong base of states that she won in 2008 and built on it. She won 23 primaries her first go(compared to Bernie's 22). Bernie has a good shot at essentially utilizing Hillary's strategy in 2016 as he expands on the lead in states that he ran and won in from the last election, along with demographic groups that he didn't do as well with, and is building strongly on now. None of his opponents won any primaries in any previous election, and Bernie has a good chance of reinvigorating the good faith from his previous supporters, and establishing a stronger base. I think Bernie's going to win this How bout you?

[David__77]

1. I think it's possible.

I think his nomination may come through what some would consider a shocking and odd series of events. Still, I see it as possible.

As for the general election, I think there would be a lot of unity in supporting him and youth and labor constituencies would mobilized heavily for his candidacy.

[rampartc]

3. bernie must have enough delegates to win a first ballot nomination

the only way to get that is to organize and win primaries.

no matter how great a plurality, if the convention comes to a second ballot, the superdelegates will not vote for Bernie.

so, the only shocking series of events" that leads to a sanders nomination is hard work, get out the vote, and primary wins one state at a time. exactly the shocking events that win general elections.

[rampartc]

2. i'm not sure that histirical precedents have much to do with it

i am very skeptical that there is some kind of "blue wall" that guarantees that we get the electoral votes of states that elect governors like chris Christie, mitt romney, or Arnold schwarznegger.

the only thing that guarantees those electoral votes are strong candidates who can motivate voter turnout. none of our candidates can draw a crows, and get them on their feet, like Bernie sanders.

the status quo in 2016 got us trump. we need a candidate to lead us into the future. i like ms warren on this as well, but again, no one is thinking farther ahead than Bernie sanders.

trump does not win a debate with facts or logic. someone has to stand up to his bullying, his lies, his antics. i don't expect any of our candidates to out trump him, but our candidate must understand and believe in his principles, our principles, enough to stand up to trump's tsunami if bullshit.

Bernie 2020

[corbettkroehler]

5. Some Precedents Still Relate

When cynics declare that Sanders can't attract voters who flipped to tᴙump, I remind them that, in 2016, in important states (which Hillary lost in the primary and general) such as Wisconsin, Bernie had more young voters in the primary that Clinton and tᴙump combined.

I fully expect that precedent to remain relevant.

BONUS: The 2018 Blue Wave included members of The Squad, 3 of whom have endorsed Sanders. In Minnesota and Michigan, the Omar and Tlaib endorsements, respectively, should provide a nice bump, too.

[rampartc]

6. i agree with all of those

primary wins in the Midwest count. many of the states that carried ms Clinton in the primary had no possibility then (or now) to turn democratic in the general election.

on the bright side, I like the "squad" and wouldn't mind 300 more just like 'em. ms AOC will be a formidable candidate when she comes of age.

[NJCher]

4. Ethos

He has it.

The nation is crying out for it.

It is very hard to attain and it is very powerful once it is established.

No other candidate has it and it is too late for them to acquire it.