Allan Lichtman shares his prediction in the 2024 presidential election

[IronLionZion]

Professor Lichtman studies keys rather than any polls. The keys originated from how they predict earthquakes and applied to US presidential elections. Stability vs shake things up.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. He predicts Harris will win!

[displacedvermoter]

2. He predicted Biden would win,

did so till he dropped out!

[IronLionZion]

3. Harris has benefits of incumbency and being a somewhat fresh face

since it's not just a rematch of 2020

[ClimateHawk]

4. He never made a prediction until today

Lichtman always said “a lot would have to go wrong” for the Biden to lose. He did say Biden dropping out would cause the incumbent party to lose the incumbency key. That could have lead to a contested convention causing them to lose the contest key. They would be down 2 keys making it almost impossible to win. Thankfully, the Democrats rallied around Harris persevering the contest key.

[displacedvermoter]

6. Kinda confused but Ok

I saw a video of him speaking in some detail a while back and he led me to believe Biden was going to win.

Glad he feels the same about Harris, or maybe the same about Trump?

[ClimateHawk]

8. This video helps explain the prediction

Also, his wiki page has a chart showing the 13 keys system. Scroll down to see the 2024 election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

[Sneederbunk]

5. It's 50/50. Either he's right or wrong.

[Dennis Donovan]

7. He's been right 9/10 times

The one time he was wrong was Bush v Gore, and we all know Gore would've won had SCOTUS not jumped in and "selected" George W Bush. So he's actually 10/10 if you take that into account.