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Johnny2X2X

(21,885 posts)

9. Average poll was WI +8 on 538, +6.7 on RCP.

Reply to exboyfil (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 6, 2020, 08:53 AM

Nov 2020

So WI was way off, a couple other state polls were off a few points, most were within the margin of error.

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Could we please begin our examination of why "all the polls were wrong" by vowing [View all] Atticus Nov 2020 OP

We don't even know if the polls were wrong or by how much yet Johnny2X2X Nov 2020 #1

Wisconsin +16, Michigan +8, Pennsylvania +6 exboyfil Nov 2020 #6

Average poll was WI +8 on 538, +6.7 on RCP. Johnny2X2X Nov 2020 #9

PA MAY be Biden +3 by the time all the votes are counted. Happy Hoosier Nov 2020 #28

Ohio was 8% off on average..PA WI AND MI were way off Tribetime Nov 2020 #26

PA wasn't way off Polybius Nov 2020 #53

I thought PA avg 6 or 7 % Tribetime Nov 2020 #59

We can do that Nederland Nov 2020 #2

And I start by saying we can't refuse to investigate and then fold our arms and scratch our Atticus Nov 2020 #23

The polls told us Collins, Ernst, Graham, Tillis were in trouble. They weren't. Beakybird Nov 2020 #3

Collins was in trouble Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #35

If the polls were more accurate, I would have donated to Gideon and Cunningham Beakybird Nov 2020 #36

Gideon didn't have a cash problem anyhow Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #40

Yes but her opponent got only 42.9 Polybius Nov 2020 #55

Undecided independents who made up their minds at the last minute Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #60

I think she fooled a lot of morons with her vote against ACB Polybius Nov 2020 #62

Yes, that too. n/t Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #63

Polls are unreliable when the subject lies apnu Nov 2020 #4

No one has an obligation to be truthful exboyfil Nov 2020 #7

Americans aren't more dishonest than S Koreans, our polling is horrid compared to theirs uponit7771 Nov 2020 #15

Not just Pugs some Libertarians probably did this too dustyscamp Nov 2020 #42

I don't buy that at all. Trumpists want to project as coti Nov 2020 #61

It will be interesting to see where the popular vote ends up at the end Shermann Nov 2020 #5

No one should really care about national polls exboyfil Nov 2020 #8

I think people are afraid to confront the topic because they don't want to discourage voting ecstatic Nov 2020 #10

+1 uponit7771 Nov 2020 #19

Is it possible, especially in Florida and South Carolina, that Baitball Blogger Nov 2020 #11

Absolutely YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #14

FALSE Shermann Nov 2020 #17

Glad to be corrected YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #22

Linky Shermann Nov 2020 #47

Which technology is used is irrelevant Nederland Nov 2020 #30

I partially agree YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #41

This is the problem Nederland Nov 2020 #48

We need to eliminate any voting machine that doesn't scan a human marked ballot YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #12

They polls weren't that far off....but they still have a lot to figure out on them. cbdo2007 Nov 2020 #13

Susan Collins led in only one poll in 2020 that I've seen. Jarqui Nov 2020 #16

Thank you. nt Atticus Nov 2020 #18

+100000 I hope We The People decide to make some Good Trouble over this issue. Tommymac Nov 2020 #39

Lets get paper ballots everywhere and then revisit the question. Chakaconcarne Nov 2020 #20

I'm baffled why people don't understand polls are not subject to suppression/tampering. Pobeka Nov 2020 #21

THIS indeed! Thank you. nt Atticus Nov 2020 #24

You're welcome. Pobeka Nov 2020 #25

I just read your post to my wife and commented "This poster is obviously a statistician Atticus Nov 2020 #27

Or possibility #3 Nederland Nov 2020 #31

That is built into the confidence interval. That's WHY there is a confidence interval. n/t Pobeka Nov 2020 #32

It is not "built into" the confidence interval, it is an assumption of the confidence interval Nederland Nov 2020 #45

If you are going to argue that pollsters don't know how to take a random sample, good luck with that Pobeka Nov 2020 #46

Nate Silver says the problem lies in getting a random sample, good luck arguing with him Nederland Nov 2020 #54

It was not just "the" poll---it was ALL the polls. I can't believe they all chose unrepresentative Atticus Nov 2020 #33

Why is it so hard to believe? Nederland Nov 2020 #37

Your response discusses "a" poll. My post discussed "all" polls. Big difference. nt Atticus Nov 2020 #49

All polls start with the same data Nederland Nov 2020 #50

We disagree. You make assumptions I consider unsupported and unsupportable. You can Atticus Nov 2020 #51

This message was self-deleted by its author Atticus Nov 2020 #52

This message was self-deleted by its author Atticus Nov 2020 #34

Here are several reasons they were wrong Cicada Nov 2020 #29

Were they wrong, or were they an indicator of foul play? GoCubsGo Nov 2020 #38

Well, Biden and his team were right to tell us not to trust them dustyscamp Nov 2020 #43

No, let's get through this. It seems to me after examining the polls there was a change very Demsrule86 Nov 2020 #44

I think I know exactly why they were wrong Polybius Nov 2020 #56

I don't think the polls anticipated the higher turn out for Trump Buckeyeblue Nov 2020 #57

It's a bit of both MoonlitKnight Nov 2020 #58