Could we please begin our examination of why "all the polls were wrong" by vowing

[Pobeka]

21. I'm baffled why people don't understand polls are not subject to suppression/tampering.

And that simple fact means a poll can give a margin of error that is different than an election result, not because the poll expressing the voter intent was wrong, but when it came to the voter not being able to cast a ballot due to suppression, or the actual count was altered, it *necessarily* means the poll will have a different estimate than the final result.

We cannot know for certain how large the tampering/suppression effect is.

We cannot know for certain how many people are gaming the pollster's and lying about intending to vote democratic, when they really intend to vote republican.

But when I see the Fox News poll results from a few days ago about how people feel about government policies around social security, health care, immigration, etc, it really makes me wonder, because I think people would be much less likely to lie to their own cult media station -- they want to see Fox News telling the story they believe to be true, not a story they artificially generate by lying.

A statistical generalization -- most polls give a 95% confidence interval, which means that we actually expect that 1 out of 20 times the voting result will exceed that margin (too low OR too high). When we have these polls so close to the election, this far off *on one side*, it means with very high certainty (much more the 95%) that either 1) people are actively lying to the pollsters, or 2) there is some sort of suppression or vote tampering occurring.