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Nederland

(9,976 posts)
48. This is the problem
Fri Nov 6, 2020, 12:03 PM
Nov 2020

The root problem in validating an election derives from the legal guarantee we all have that our vote is anonymous. The guarantee of anonymity serves two purposes. It protects people from threats like "if you don't vote for X we are going to burn your house down". It also prevents the buying of people's votes--if a person cannot prove who they voted for, bad actors are little inclined to offer them money to vote a certain way.

While the guarantee of anonymity is a crucial right in a democracy, it creates an intrinsic problem for validating elections. Regardless of what technology is used, anonymous voting means that once you vote, any information describing how you voted is irrevocably separated from you. It doesn't matter whether that vote was recorded by marks on a piece of paper or by voltage fluctuations on a piece of silicon, once you've voted, the record of how you voted goes into someone else's hands. That vote may be placed in a locked box that can only be opened by a select set of people holding metal keys, or it may be placed into a computer file that has been encrypted and can only be opened by selected set of people holding digital keys. It doesn't matter. Whatever technology is used to protect your vote from being changed, your confidence that your vote will eventually be counted correctly is based on a common set of assumptions. You have to trust the people holding the keys. You have to trust there is a process that protects those people from others trying to steal the keys from them. And once your vote has been "unlocked", you have to trust the people doing the counting--whether those people are volunteers sitting in chairs shuffling pieces of paper or programmers sitting in chairs shuffling bits and bytes. Ultimately, regardless of what method is used, you have to trust the system that was created and the people involved.

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We don't even know if the polls were wrong or by how much yet Johnny2X2X Nov 2020 #1
Wisconsin +16, Michigan +8, Pennsylvania +6 exboyfil Nov 2020 #6
Average poll was WI +8 on 538, +6.7 on RCP. Johnny2X2X Nov 2020 #9
PA MAY be Biden +3 by the time all the votes are counted. Happy Hoosier Nov 2020 #28
Ohio was 8% off on average..PA WI AND MI were way off Tribetime Nov 2020 #26
PA wasn't way off Polybius Nov 2020 #53
I thought PA avg 6 or 7 % Tribetime Nov 2020 #59
We can do that Nederland Nov 2020 #2
And I start by saying we can't refuse to investigate and then fold our arms and scratch our Atticus Nov 2020 #23
The polls told us Collins, Ernst, Graham, Tillis were in trouble. They weren't. Beakybird Nov 2020 #3
Collins was in trouble Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #35
If the polls were more accurate, I would have donated to Gideon and Cunningham Beakybird Nov 2020 #36
Gideon didn't have a cash problem anyhow Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #40
Yes but her opponent got only 42.9 Polybius Nov 2020 #55
Undecided independents who made up their minds at the last minute Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #60
I think she fooled a lot of morons with her vote against ACB Polybius Nov 2020 #62
Yes, that too. n/t Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2020 #63
Polls are unreliable when the subject lies apnu Nov 2020 #4
No one has an obligation to be truthful exboyfil Nov 2020 #7
Americans aren't more dishonest than S Koreans, our polling is horrid compared to theirs uponit7771 Nov 2020 #15
Not just Pugs some Libertarians probably did this too dustyscamp Nov 2020 #42
I don't buy that at all. Trumpists want to project as coti Nov 2020 #61
It will be interesting to see where the popular vote ends up at the end Shermann Nov 2020 #5
No one should really care about national polls exboyfil Nov 2020 #8
I think people are afraid to confront the topic because they don't want to discourage voting ecstatic Nov 2020 #10
+1 uponit7771 Nov 2020 #19
Is it possible, especially in Florida and South Carolina, that Baitball Blogger Nov 2020 #11
Absolutely YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #14
FALSE Shermann Nov 2020 #17
Glad to be corrected YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #22
Linky Shermann Nov 2020 #47
Which technology is used is irrelevant Nederland Nov 2020 #30
I partially agree YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #41
This is the problem Nederland Nov 2020 #48
We need to eliminate any voting machine that doesn't scan a human marked ballot YessirAtsaFact Nov 2020 #12
They polls weren't that far off....but they still have a lot to figure out on them. cbdo2007 Nov 2020 #13
Susan Collins led in only one poll in 2020 that I've seen. Jarqui Nov 2020 #16
Thank you. nt Atticus Nov 2020 #18
+100000 I hope We The People decide to make some Good Trouble over this issue. Tommymac Nov 2020 #39
Lets get paper ballots everywhere and then revisit the question. Chakaconcarne Nov 2020 #20
I'm baffled why people don't understand polls are not subject to suppression/tampering. Pobeka Nov 2020 #21
THIS indeed! Thank you. nt Atticus Nov 2020 #24
You're welcome. Pobeka Nov 2020 #25
I just read your post to my wife and commented "This poster is obviously a statistician Atticus Nov 2020 #27
Or possibility #3 Nederland Nov 2020 #31
That is built into the confidence interval. That's WHY there is a confidence interval. n/t Pobeka Nov 2020 #32
It is not "built into" the confidence interval, it is an assumption of the confidence interval Nederland Nov 2020 #45
If you are going to argue that pollsters don't know how to take a random sample, good luck with that Pobeka Nov 2020 #46
Nate Silver says the problem lies in getting a random sample, good luck arguing with him Nederland Nov 2020 #54
It was not just "the" poll---it was ALL the polls. I can't believe they all chose unrepresentative Atticus Nov 2020 #33
Why is it so hard to believe? Nederland Nov 2020 #37
Your response discusses "a" poll. My post discussed "all" polls. Big difference. nt Atticus Nov 2020 #49
All polls start with the same data Nederland Nov 2020 #50
We disagree. You make assumptions I consider unsupported and unsupportable. You can Atticus Nov 2020 #51
This message was self-deleted by its author Atticus Nov 2020 #52
This message was self-deleted by its author Atticus Nov 2020 #34
Here are several reasons they were wrong Cicada Nov 2020 #29
Were they wrong, or were they an indicator of foul play? GoCubsGo Nov 2020 #38
Well, Biden and his team were right to tell us not to trust them dustyscamp Nov 2020 #43
No, let's get through this. It seems to me after examining the polls there was a change very Demsrule86 Nov 2020 #44
I think I know exactly why they were wrong Polybius Nov 2020 #56
I don't think the polls anticipated the higher turn out for Trump Buckeyeblue Nov 2020 #57
It's a bit of both MoonlitKnight Nov 2020 #58
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