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Beautiful Disaster

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16. Polls in just about every high-profiled race are so close that any movement can change things.

Thu Nov 3, 2022, 11:26 AM

Nov 2022

The only reason Republicans are favored is because they lead in more polls but their margins are so thin in Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin that just a slight shift toward the Democrats could win them all.

The problem the Democrats are facing right now in the senate is Nevada. That's a state that I think everyone took for granted for months while focusing on Georgia and Pennsylvania. If the Democrats lose both Nevada and Georgia, they'll have to flip PA + one other Republican state (OH, WI or NC) doable but unlikely.

If they only lose one, they can win it back with PA but their majority doesn't change.

There's also New Hampshire where polls have shown Hassan trailing, again, by a very narrow margin.

Really, it's a toss-up. It will come down to turnout. This isn't a wave election where it's in the bag for the party out of power. It's going to be a game of margins and turnout.

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The Polls could be off and Democrats could win it all...from 538. It could go the the other way too [View all] Demsrule86 Nov 2022 OP

538 polls are not reliable. Joy Reid explained why on her show a few days ago. onecaliberal Nov 2022 #1

My understanding is that 538 isn't a poll. It's an aggregator of polls. yardwork Nov 2022 #3

Right wing skewed polls. onecaliberal Nov 2022 #4

They aggregate all polls... BlueCheeseAgain Nov 2022 #33

That is why Nate is basically saying...hey these are the numbers for the Midterm...but if the polls Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #9

He's saying what I've said a lot - this is a particularly difficult election to model Amishman Nov 2022 #21

Honestly, I have no idea what will happen on Tuesday... I keep thinking we may win but who Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #49

538 does no polling, it's not really a poll aggregator either Deminpenn Nov 2022 #20

The context is still correct, "538 polls" are not reliable, as in 538 includes shady R polls skewing themaguffin Nov 2022 #32

👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻 onecaliberal Nov 2022 #36

Again, not defending 538, but they do make an attempt Deminpenn Nov 2022 #39

If you can find the Joy Reid show from a few days ago, they had a guest on that explained onecaliberal Nov 2022 #45

538 tries to correct for that bias, but still it has the GIGO Deminpenn Nov 2022 #38

Thanks for that explanation! That makes sense. yardwork Nov 2022 #54

Um... Pollsters are statisticians. The real ones, no less. Genki Hikari Nov 2022 #56

ignore the polls and VOTE RussBLib Nov 2022 #2

Exactly... Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #10

It isn't guaranteed but I think a polling error favoring Dems is far ColinC Nov 2022 #5

With Roe and Medicare...I do too...time will tell! Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #12

Early numbers, for the most part seem to be looking cgood ColinC Nov 2022 #13

We will know when we know. I'm imagining a LOT of women Scrivener7 Nov 2022 #6

I think you are right...there will red areas that go for the Democrats...they have missed the Roe Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #18

Some people like to believe their preferred outcome Scrivener7 Nov 2022 #30

This! moonscape Nov 2022 #41

I have done GOTV forever and if people think we will lose that is when they don't turn up... Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #44

Kansas was a real eye opener wryter2000 Nov 2022 #26

The conclusion of this analysis seems to be prodigitalson Nov 2022 #7

Exactly. Scrivener7 Nov 2022 #31

Well, there's only three possibilities Polybius Nov 2022 #8

Ah but you missing an important fact...more than half of polls are cheap shitty right wing polls lik Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #19

If they are proven wrong again, I hope 538 and RCP banns them Polybius Nov 2022 #25

50% chance of rain. Yavin4 Nov 2022 #11

I have to wonder if there is a bit CYA going on...he has to know that some of the polls being used Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #22

You can be wrong in CA wryter2000 Nov 2022 #27

I think bookmarking is the key. Baggies Nov 2022 #14

This is some world-class hedging EarlG Nov 2022 #15

That is what I think...I am not giving up...going to get the vote out...I am walking later and the Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #23

For sure Deminpenn Nov 2022 #40

Polls in just about every high-profiled race are so close that any movement can change things. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #16

And the Roe effect to tip the elections in our favor. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #24

In summary. Polls are useless now. So why is there so much time wasted on them? bullimiami Nov 2022 #17

I just take all polls with a grain of salt, good or bad. Elessar Zappa Nov 2022 #28

It's close and could go either way Sympthsical Nov 2022 #29

I say they lose the house because of Roe...women know you need both houses to codify Roe. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #43

Not sure why they have Warnock with less of a chance of winning. All the polls that would be PortTack Nov 2022 #34

Non-partisan polls show Warnock winning but there many partisan shit polls Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #35

They are trying to cover their asses budkin Nov 2022 #37

Is that it...biggest CYA ever...hmmm Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #42

I'm tired of all the complaining about the polls iemanja Nov 2022 #46

+1. May be crystal balls but only crystal balls we've got :) Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2022 #48

I don't disagree with you. Nate doesn't run the polls but he is warning that despite best efforts Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #50

Virtual phone bank this sunday and monday. Flash953 Nov 2022 #47

Since all polls are considered and factored, and the GOP has flooded the market with polls to skew lees1975 Nov 2022 #51

So true yankee87 Nov 2022 #53

Stop. Genki Hikari Nov 2022 #57

Bad Polls yankee87 Nov 2022 #58

I just don't get how the GOP can run Herschel Walker without shame and maybe get away with it renate Nov 2022 #52

Yup...I know. Hershel Walker is mentally ill and not smart IMHO...and unqualified for the Senate. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #55