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wryter2000

(47,606 posts)

27. You can be wrong in CA

Reply to Yavin4 (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 3, 2022, 11:43 AM

Nov 2022

We had one calendar year when it rained once where I live.

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The Polls could be off and Democrats could win it all...from 538. It could go the the other way too [View all] Demsrule86 Nov 2022 OP

538 polls are not reliable. Joy Reid explained why on her show a few days ago. onecaliberal Nov 2022 #1

My understanding is that 538 isn't a poll. It's an aggregator of polls. yardwork Nov 2022 #3

Right wing skewed polls. onecaliberal Nov 2022 #4

They aggregate all polls... BlueCheeseAgain Nov 2022 #33

That is why Nate is basically saying...hey these are the numbers for the Midterm...but if the polls Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #9

He's saying what I've said a lot - this is a particularly difficult election to model Amishman Nov 2022 #21

Honestly, I have no idea what will happen on Tuesday... I keep thinking we may win but who Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #49

538 does no polling, it's not really a poll aggregator either Deminpenn Nov 2022 #20

The context is still correct, "538 polls" are not reliable, as in 538 includes shady R polls skewing themaguffin Nov 2022 #32

👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻 onecaliberal Nov 2022 #36

Again, not defending 538, but they do make an attempt Deminpenn Nov 2022 #39

If you can find the Joy Reid show from a few days ago, they had a guest on that explained onecaliberal Nov 2022 #45

538 tries to correct for that bias, but still it has the GIGO Deminpenn Nov 2022 #38

Thanks for that explanation! That makes sense. yardwork Nov 2022 #54

Um... Pollsters are statisticians. The real ones, no less. Genki Hikari Nov 2022 #56

ignore the polls and VOTE RussBLib Nov 2022 #2

Exactly... Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #10

It isn't guaranteed but I think a polling error favoring Dems is far ColinC Nov 2022 #5

With Roe and Medicare...I do too...time will tell! Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #12

Early numbers, for the most part seem to be looking cgood ColinC Nov 2022 #13

We will know when we know. I'm imagining a LOT of women Scrivener7 Nov 2022 #6

I think you are right...there will red areas that go for the Democrats...they have missed the Roe Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #18

Some people like to believe their preferred outcome Scrivener7 Nov 2022 #30

This! moonscape Nov 2022 #41

I have done GOTV forever and if people think we will lose that is when they don't turn up... Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #44

Kansas was a real eye opener wryter2000 Nov 2022 #26

The conclusion of this analysis seems to be prodigitalson Nov 2022 #7

Exactly. Scrivener7 Nov 2022 #31

Well, there's only three possibilities Polybius Nov 2022 #8

Ah but you missing an important fact...more than half of polls are cheap shitty right wing polls lik Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #19

If they are proven wrong again, I hope 538 and RCP banns them Polybius Nov 2022 #25

50% chance of rain. Yavin4 Nov 2022 #11

I have to wonder if there is a bit CYA going on...he has to know that some of the polls being used Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #22

You can be wrong in CA wryter2000 Nov 2022 #27

I think bookmarking is the key. Baggies Nov 2022 #14

This is some world-class hedging EarlG Nov 2022 #15

That is what I think...I am not giving up...going to get the vote out...I am walking later and the Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #23

For sure Deminpenn Nov 2022 #40

Polls in just about every high-profiled race are so close that any movement can change things. Beautiful Disaster Nov 2022 #16

And the Roe effect to tip the elections in our favor. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #24

In summary. Polls are useless now. So why is there so much time wasted on them? bullimiami Nov 2022 #17

I just take all polls with a grain of salt, good or bad. Elessar Zappa Nov 2022 #28

It's close and could go either way Sympthsical Nov 2022 #29

I say they lose the house because of Roe...women know you need both houses to codify Roe. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #43

Not sure why they have Warnock with less of a chance of winning. All the polls that would be PortTack Nov 2022 #34

Non-partisan polls show Warnock winning but there many partisan shit polls Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #35

They are trying to cover their asses budkin Nov 2022 #37

Is that it...biggest CYA ever...hmmm Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #42

I'm tired of all the complaining about the polls iemanja Nov 2022 #46

+1. May be crystal balls but only crystal balls we've got :) Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2022 #48

I don't disagree with you. Nate doesn't run the polls but he is warning that despite best efforts Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #50

Virtual phone bank this sunday and monday. Flash953 Nov 2022 #47

Since all polls are considered and factored, and the GOP has flooded the market with polls to skew lees1975 Nov 2022 #51

So true yankee87 Nov 2022 #53

Stop. Genki Hikari Nov 2022 #57

Bad Polls yankee87 Nov 2022 #58

I just don't get how the GOP can run Herschel Walker without shame and maybe get away with it renate Nov 2022 #52

Yup...I know. Hershel Walker is mentally ill and not smart IMHO...and unqualified for the Senate. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #55