If the SCOTUS votes to keep TFG on the ballot,

[Caliman73]

13. No they are not. SCOTUS isn't making the decision...

They are deciding whether it is within the framework of the Constitution, within the balance of power between State and National governments for States to decide to kick someone off the ballot.

Take the case in Oregon as a counter example. I doubt that the Supreme Court will get involved in this situation. Why? because the Oregon Courts have jurisdiction to decide what is fair and legal in the borders of the State. The Republicans who broke the law in Oregon, got kicked off the ballot in Oregon. They took their case all the way up to the highest court in Oregon and the court sided with other courts in the state who said the Republicans' actions forfeited their ability to hold office.

I am not arguing the merits of whether Trump committed Insurrection. I am explaining the reasoning of the Court in JURISDICTION.

When the Confederates were kicked out of office after the war, it was the Federal government that decided whether they could hold office. Many Confederates held State and local offices after the war, including the Mayor of Los Angeles, governorships, etc... Where they ran into problems was when they tried to hold Federal office, unless their "disability" was cured by the National Congress.

I don't like the decision, but that is likely how they will come down. It isn't specious, cowardly maybe, but not specious. Several legal scholars had posited that this was one likely way out for the Court.