General Discussion

Self Esteem

(1,763 posts)

26. Harris' internals show the race essentially tied.

Thu Oct 3, 2024, 09:43 AM

Oct 3

Her campaign realizes this is a coin-flip election and it's not going to be a blowout like some here suggest.

I think she's the favorite but only marginally and it'll come down to turnout in the key states.

But the last call I had with the Harris campaign regarding the election (on Monday), this was their breakdown of each state:

Lean Harris (21 EV):

Michigan
Nevada

Toss-up (45 EV):

North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean-Trump (27 EV):

Arizona
Georgia

The good news is that Harris' campaign feels more confident about her chances in the Lean Trump states than they do Trump's chances in the Lean Harris states.

But regardless, it's close. It will be close. It'll all come down to turnout. Fortunately, there's a lot of enthusiasm on our side. But Republicans are also enthusiastic - way more than in 2008 and 2016.

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ancianita EverHopeful h2ebits rictofen B.See Lemonwurst raging moderate

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The polls are saying this election is tied in the presidential race. If they are correct, then there is something very [View all] JohnSJ Oct 3 OP

The cult will come out and vote for Trump. dalton99a Oct 3 #1

Cult is right! LakeVermilion Oct 3 #11

These people are very much Republicans. It's been a very long time since Republicans cared about policy... JHB Oct 3 #116

Compassionate Conservatives mountain grammy Oct 3 #134

There aren't enough of them FakeNoose Oct 3 #66

the internal polls are not tied... agingdem Oct 3 #86

It kinda was a red wave. They won the popular vote, jimfields33 Oct 3 #118

GOP took the House by a slim margin... agingdem Oct 3 #120

The facts. jimfields33 Oct 3 #121

Popular vote for House? dpibel Oct 3 #162

Silly or not. It's a thing. Look at the link I provided. jimfields33 Oct 3 #164

I looked at the link you provided dpibel Oct 3 #170

Yeah Abstractartist Oct 3 #161

What pool do pollsters use is the key determining validity. LiberalFighter Oct 3 #119

Given the decay in civics education, many have no idea what democracy is. CincyDem Oct 3 #2

gullibles travails poozwah Oct 3 #71

More koolaide barkeep DoBW Oct 3 #144

!! appalachiablue Oct 3 #133

Texas took critical thinking class out of their schools-makes you wonder why and who's decision Stargazer99 Oct 4 #179

Never underestimate the power of msogeny Jersey Devil Oct 3 #3

I don't. The NY Times and associated media outlets demonstrated that in 2016. JohnSJ Oct 3 #5

Beyond race and religion sanevoiceus Oct 3 #45

Misogyny, bias, and classism explain much of what is wrong with our society. OldBaldy1701E Oct 4 #178

Which polls? Trueblue Texan Oct 3 #4

Even the National Polls are only showing a MOE lead by VP Harris, and of course as you point out the election will be JohnSJ Oct 3 #8

MOE? Rebl2 Oct 3 #55

MOE Margin Of Error. It is a range where the polling company says their numbers may be off by. nt kelly1mm Oct 3 #58

An acceptable MOE is 3.5% Rocknation Oct 3 #64

Agreed! When speaking of MOE, smaller is better! lol! nt kelly1mm Oct 3 #68

"Now you listen to me, Kolchak!" chwaliszewski Oct 3 #83

and a 3.5 MOE could be 7 ahead. Meadowoak Oct 4 #176

Friend of curly! GreenWave Oct 3 #62

Has the MOE of these polls changed over say, the last 25 years as their aggregate accuracy has decreased? Cheezoholic Oct 3 #136

It is their escape clause. JohnSJ Oct 3 #137

Agree, it's why I don' trust them. They are trying to tell us that half this country are racist idiots Cheezoholic Oct 3 #143

The polls don't say that Johnny2X2X Oct 3 #6

It is within the MOE, and you can rationalize it anyway you want, but it is saying that 45% of the voting JohnSJ Oct 3 #10

This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Oct 3 #15

sure. JohnSJ Oct 3 #16

Lying is now the "coin of the realm" in the good ole USA. That's about right. harumph Oct 3 #23

The MOE on an average of polls is very very small Johnny2X2X Oct 3 #25

No rationalizations here...the polls have been abysmally inaccurate for the last 3 election cycles PortTack Oct 3 #53

But isn't the following also true: kelly1mm Oct 3 #56

What is MOST wrong is the Electoral College system! Charging Triceratops Oct 3 #7

Too right, it is a kickback to an era that is no longer relevant. Bev54 Oct 3 #21

Former Confederate states think it IS relevant. dchill Oct 3 #109

It does seem they want to go back to the slavery era. Bev54 Oct 3 #113

Well... Yeah. dchill Oct 3 #114

Every 4 years DownriverDem Oct 3 #35

There are two ways to do that. One is a constitutional amendment which would be almost impossible. kelly1mm Oct 3 #67

At that range it is unlikely she will lose LiberalFighter Oct 3 #124

IMHO "tied" is bogus wryter2000 Oct 3 #9

It's not bogus. Self Esteem Oct 3 #17

Every single poll survives financially by providing its data to media outlets. lees1975 Oct 3 #30

100% false. Self Esteem Oct 3 #37

Bullshit. You're drinking the koolaide. lees1975 Oct 3 #44

You're just making things up now. Self Esteem Oct 3 #52

Redacted data put up on the internet after the fact isn't proof. lees1975 Oct 3 #60

I get it now. Self Esteem Oct 3 #69

The aggregators that used an "average" of MANY polls had Fetterman losing BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #81

Stop it. Self Esteem Oct 3 #122

Nothing I posted is "irrelevent" BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #135

Your post had nothing to do with my reply. Self Esteem Oct 3 #139

You have fixated on polls BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #141

I fixate on misinformation. Self Esteem Oct 3 #147

"I fixate on misinformation." BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #149

Well stated sir! gay texan Oct 3 #154

I have a pile of 2022 post-mortem links BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #158

Now you're making stuff up. Self Esteem Oct 3 #157

And the point of what has been posted has naturally done this BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #160

give it up, Dude. iemanja Oct 3 #92

Polling errors aren't deliberately fabricated to piss you off iemanja Oct 3 #89

I think sometimes the pundits are wrong and not the polls Farmer-Rick Oct 3 #65

One thing they do is make a huge deal over small polling differences iemanja Oct 3 #93

Manufactured horse race revenue gay texan Oct 3 #155

I know it's not going to be like 2008 wryter2000 Oct 3 #87

because that's not how you want it to be iemanja Oct 3 #84

My evidence wryter2000 Oct 3 #127

Not only that..... Butterflylady Oct 3 #146

Here's my take. bluesbassman Oct 3 #12

I hope so. I know there are a significant number of people who do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize, JohnSJ Oct 3 #14

Good points. bluesbassman Oct 3 #98

They never ask, "On a scale of 1 to 10, how sick are you of Donald Trump?" CrispyQ Oct 3 #22

My response for sure if they ever called me! bluesbassman Oct 3 #96

I don't think it will be very close. I believe Harris will win the race OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #13

She can do both those and the race can still be very close. Self Esteem Oct 3 #20

He had Pennsylvania and Michigan, and only needed either Arizona, Georgia or Wisconsin, not all three. lees1975 Oct 3 #32

I understand what you're saying. I just don't think it will be that close. OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #39

I'm going to work my ass off to make sure you are right. Trueblue Texan Oct 3 #168

After all that Trump did on Jan 6th and they Emile Oct 3 #18

We have no reason to believe what the polls are saying, since they were wrong the last three election cycles. ancianita Oct 3 #19

Harris' internals show the race essentially tied. Self Esteem Oct 3 #26

Exactly what we said in 2018, 2020, 2022: "But regardless, it's close. It will be close. It'll all come down to turnout" ancianita Oct 3 #33

And every one of those elections were close. Self Esteem Oct 3 #41

And we won every one of them. Including all special elections. ancianita Oct 3 #88

2018 and 2022 were mixed. Self Esteem Oct 3 #95

Fair enough. I still hold that 2024 will be better. ancianita Oct 3 #106

I think we win in November. But it'll be close. Self Esteem Oct 3 #107

If "close" works to increase our side's GOTV, that works for me. ancianita Oct 3 #110

We won in 2022? Zeitghost Oct 3 #140

Yes, it was mixed. I did say "fair enough." BUT. We did great for the midterms of an incumbent president. ancianita Oct 3 #142

And you were wrong about the red Wave in 2022 obamanut2012 Oct 3 #104

I don't trust the polls. And I believe it will be a big victory for us. Demsrule86 Oct 3 #36

Well whether you trust her internals or not, they do. Self Esteem Oct 3 #40

But Republicans are also enthusiastic - way more than in 2008 and 2016. lees1975 Oct 3 #63

I haven't seen one poll where Republican enthusiasm is down compared to 2008 or 2016. Self Esteem Oct 3 #73

A lot of people believed that in 2020, too. Mariana Oct 3 #77

yeah, I haven't seen any polls that show great GOP enthusiasm. Where is this person getting their info? LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #94

what is your source for knowing Harris' internal polls? LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #91

I work for my state party. Self Esteem Oct 3 #102

OK, thanks. I think the problem is it's hard to know when an article quotes campaign internal numbers if they are LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #125

Wsas this call made in Brooklyn? How do you know what the insiders are saying? obamanut2012 Oct 3 #101

I don't know what you mean by the Brooklyn comment. I'm not in Brooklyn. Self Esteem Oct 3 #105

Wait Wait WAIT - I'm glad I kept scrolling down. FHRRK Oct 3 #173

They're correct and yes there is sarisataka Oct 3 #24

with all the republicans, including nikki haley's crowd, supporting Kamala samsingh Oct 3 #27

About 50 years ago, comedian Alan Sheman Wednesdays Oct 3 #28

Its all about two things in my mind Tree Lady Oct 3 #29

I've read that if enough people are kept miserable enough for long enough EverHopeful Oct 3 #31

That's the sort of answer I'm looking for. It doesn't help just to call them names. If we... LAS14 Oct 3 #50

Perhaps the media could go to a diner in displacedvermoter Oct 3 #54

Or how about "Fred's Typical Ohio Diner", courtesy of Tom Tomorrow's... keep_left Oct 3 #72

I don't know if you mean this sarcastically or not, but it is, actually.... LAS14 Oct 3 #117

They have been going to these diners for a decade now in red states/districts, and getting the predictable responses. displacedvermoter Oct 3 #129

I consider this the best commentary on this thread h2ebits Oct 3 #112

You can't educate people who are wrapped in hate Keepthesoulalive Oct 3 #123

I was responding to post #31 h2ebits Oct 3 #150

I've been around a long time Keepthesoulalive Oct 3 #153

The polls are not right they are using previous elections. And Demsrule86 Oct 3 #34

It seems the polls give a favorable answer for the people that paid for them. rubbersole Oct 3 #46

People who don't believe in democracy should not vote. NameAlreadyTaken Oct 3 #38

People who don't believe in democracy should move to an authoritarian country. Frank D. Lincoln Oct 3 #174

The polls are fucked up. I don't know why. Just vote, people. Joinfortmill Oct 3 #42

There will be only one poll that matters in 2024 Wednesdays Oct 3 #59

tRump is headed toward a massive defeat. Much bigger than his loss to Biden. Sibelius Fan Oct 3 #43

Yes, and the constant drumbeat of whining 'why is this so close, woe is me' from our side is what they want FrankBooth Oct 3 #51

Illusionary Effect (similar to Madela Affect) because MAGA Media continually repeating lies uponit7771 Oct 3 #47

Yup. And it's no consolation when the numbers drop to "only" 42% would vote for Trump. nt LAS14 Oct 3 #48

"It means 50% of the voting population do not believe in democracy" peppertree Oct 3 #49

Absolutely. markodochartaigh Oct 3 #111

Well said. peppertree Oct 3 #126

The polls and corporate media likes saying it's tied -- it's better for business Rocknation Oct 3 #57

True, but... Mike Nelson Oct 3 #61

For the purposes of this discussion nonvoters may as well not exist TheKentuckian Oct 3 #132

I know DeepWinter Oct 3 #70

No it isn't. Obviously you have completely ignored what happened on January 6, and if you read the preliminary evidence JohnSJ Oct 3 #75

wow obamanut2012 Oct 3 #97

Let the USSC take up the issue of their own immunity. jaxexpat Oct 3 #74

I don't think its tied Roc2020 Oct 3 #76

I've got a question for you. disappearingboy Oct 3 #78

that's pretty much where we are prodigitalson Oct 3 #79

There have always been people in this country who don't believe in American Democracy... appmanga Oct 3 #80

Have you met America? iemanja Oct 3 #82

Half the people voting for him are a mix of low-info types and staunch Republicans who believe he can be reined in. TRHST82 Oct 3 #85

a significant part of it is that there are rigged GOP polls that skew the average LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #90

I don't believe they're accurate. liberalla Oct 3 #99

Same Bayard Oct 3 #115

It's going to be a fucking blowout. IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 3 #100

42 states? iemanja Oct 3 #131

Why are people surprised? We're a tribal, polarized country right now Sympthsical Oct 3 #103

Harris wins 58 times out of 100 according to 538 today. Shermann Oct 3 #108

It seems like it's an abuse relationship, cilla4progress Oct 3 #128

Re. "If they are correct, then there is something very wrong and demented in this country". B.See Oct 3 #130

Yes, it has been clear for some time that there is something very wrong and demented in this country. Martin68 Oct 3 #138

The answer is quite simple... Jon Waters Oct 3 #145

Welcome to DU LetMyPeopleVote Oct 4 #183

It's not tied. Just_Vote_Dem Oct 3 #148

Do the pollsters say how they contact people? viva la Oct 3 #151

My question is how do they factor in those who won't answer calls from numbers they do not recognize or those who don''t JohnSJ Oct 3 #152

It's hard to believe that many non-rabid voters would choose to spend even 5 minutes in the middle of the day viva la Oct 4 #181

I actually think it would take a more than 5 minutes if you look at some of the cross tabs from the legitimate JohnSJ Oct 4 #182

That is why I am hoping for a Dem4life1970 Oct 3 #156

I hope so. JohnSJ Oct 3 #159

It's a cult that goes beyond Trump. They *believe* that they believe in democracy, but... Beartracks Oct 3 #163

There certainly is something very wrong. It's called misogyny. soldierant Oct 3 #165

I hope the polls are proven wrong. It's very depressing to think that ecstatic Oct 3 #166

Let's focus on the challenge of polling right now Metaphorical Oct 3 #167

Fox is popular. CNN also seems to be turning to the right. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 3 #169

The good news Iis Harris will win autorank Oct 3 #171

perhaps the media isn't covering everything orleans Oct 3 #172

Forget the polls, says the American University historian Allan Lichtman, Frank D. Lincoln Oct 4 #175

Imho our problem is more that nearly fifty percent Tweedy Oct 4 #177

Here in the swing area of a swing state PennRalphie Oct 4 #180