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lees1975

(6,090 posts)

32. He had Pennsylvania and Michigan, and only needed either Arizona, Georgia or Wisconsin, not all three.

Thu Oct 3, 2024, 09:51 AM

Oct 3

He won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the three he needed, by a total of 246,000 votes combined in the three states.

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The polls are saying this election is tied in the presidential race. If they are correct, then there is something very [View all] JohnSJ Oct 3 OP

The cult will come out and vote for Trump. dalton99a Oct 3 #1

Cult is right! LakeVermilion Oct 3 #11

These people are very much Republicans. It's been a very long time since Republicans cared about policy... JHB Oct 3 #116

Compassionate Conservatives mountain grammy Oct 3 #134

There aren't enough of them FakeNoose Oct 3 #66

the internal polls are not tied... agingdem Oct 3 #86

It kinda was a red wave. They won the popular vote, jimfields33 Oct 3 #118

GOP took the House by a slim margin... agingdem Oct 3 #120

The facts. jimfields33 Oct 3 #121

Popular vote for House? dpibel Oct 3 #162

Silly or not. It's a thing. Look at the link I provided. jimfields33 Oct 3 #164

I looked at the link you provided dpibel Oct 3 #170

Yeah Abstractartist Oct 3 #161

What pool do pollsters use is the key determining validity. LiberalFighter Oct 3 #119

Given the decay in civics education, many have no idea what democracy is. CincyDem Oct 3 #2

gullibles travails poozwah Oct 3 #71

More koolaide barkeep DoBW Oct 3 #144

!! appalachiablue Oct 3 #133

Texas took critical thinking class out of their schools-makes you wonder why and who's decision Stargazer99 Oct 4 #179

Never underestimate the power of msogeny Jersey Devil Oct 3 #3

I don't. The NY Times and associated media outlets demonstrated that in 2016. JohnSJ Oct 3 #5

Beyond race and religion sanevoiceus Oct 3 #45

Misogyny, bias, and classism explain much of what is wrong with our society. OldBaldy1701E Oct 4 #178

Which polls? Trueblue Texan Oct 3 #4

Even the National Polls are only showing a MOE lead by VP Harris, and of course as you point out the election will be JohnSJ Oct 3 #8

MOE? Rebl2 Oct 3 #55

MOE Margin Of Error. It is a range where the polling company says their numbers may be off by. nt kelly1mm Oct 3 #58

An acceptable MOE is 3.5% Rocknation Oct 3 #64

Agreed! When speaking of MOE, smaller is better! lol! nt kelly1mm Oct 3 #68

"Now you listen to me, Kolchak!" chwaliszewski Oct 3 #83

and a 3.5 MOE could be 7 ahead. Meadowoak Oct 4 #176

Friend of curly! GreenWave Oct 3 #62

Has the MOE of these polls changed over say, the last 25 years as their aggregate accuracy has decreased? Cheezoholic Oct 3 #136

It is their escape clause. JohnSJ Oct 3 #137

Agree, it's why I don' trust them. They are trying to tell us that half this country are racist idiots Cheezoholic Oct 3 #143

The polls don't say that Johnny2X2X Oct 3 #6

It is within the MOE, and you can rationalize it anyway you want, but it is saying that 45% of the voting JohnSJ Oct 3 #10

This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Oct 3 #15

sure. JohnSJ Oct 3 #16

Lying is now the "coin of the realm" in the good ole USA. That's about right. harumph Oct 3 #23

The MOE on an average of polls is very very small Johnny2X2X Oct 3 #25

No rationalizations here...the polls have been abysmally inaccurate for the last 3 election cycles PortTack Oct 3 #53

But isn't the following also true: kelly1mm Oct 3 #56

What is MOST wrong is the Electoral College system! Charging Triceratops Oct 3 #7

Too right, it is a kickback to an era that is no longer relevant. Bev54 Oct 3 #21

Former Confederate states think it IS relevant. dchill Oct 3 #109

It does seem they want to go back to the slavery era. Bev54 Oct 3 #113

Well... Yeah. dchill Oct 3 #114

Every 4 years DownriverDem Oct 3 #35

There are two ways to do that. One is a constitutional amendment which would be almost impossible. kelly1mm Oct 3 #67

At that range it is unlikely she will lose LiberalFighter Oct 3 #124

IMHO "tied" is bogus wryter2000 Oct 3 #9

It's not bogus. Self Esteem Oct 3 #17

Every single poll survives financially by providing its data to media outlets. lees1975 Oct 3 #30

100% false. Self Esteem Oct 3 #37

Bullshit. You're drinking the koolaide. lees1975 Oct 3 #44

You're just making things up now. Self Esteem Oct 3 #52

Redacted data put up on the internet after the fact isn't proof. lees1975 Oct 3 #60

I get it now. Self Esteem Oct 3 #69

The aggregators that used an "average" of MANY polls had Fetterman losing BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #81

Stop it. Self Esteem Oct 3 #122

Nothing I posted is "irrelevent" BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #135

Your post had nothing to do with my reply. Self Esteem Oct 3 #139

You have fixated on polls BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #141

I fixate on misinformation. Self Esteem Oct 3 #147

"I fixate on misinformation." BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #149

Well stated sir! gay texan Oct 3 #154

I have a pile of 2022 post-mortem links BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #158

Now you're making stuff up. Self Esteem Oct 3 #157

And the point of what has been posted has naturally done this BumRushDaShow Oct 3 #160

give it up, Dude. iemanja Oct 3 #92

Polling errors aren't deliberately fabricated to piss you off iemanja Oct 3 #89

I think sometimes the pundits are wrong and not the polls Farmer-Rick Oct 3 #65

One thing they do is make a huge deal over small polling differences iemanja Oct 3 #93

Manufactured horse race revenue gay texan Oct 3 #155

I know it's not going to be like 2008 wryter2000 Oct 3 #87

because that's not how you want it to be iemanja Oct 3 #84

My evidence wryter2000 Oct 3 #127

Not only that..... Butterflylady Oct 3 #146

Here's my take. bluesbassman Oct 3 #12

I hope so. I know there are a significant number of people who do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize, JohnSJ Oct 3 #14

Good points. bluesbassman Oct 3 #98

They never ask, "On a scale of 1 to 10, how sick are you of Donald Trump?" CrispyQ Oct 3 #22

My response for sure if they ever called me! bluesbassman Oct 3 #96

I don't think it will be very close. I believe Harris will win the race OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #13

She can do both those and the race can still be very close. Self Esteem Oct 3 #20

He had Pennsylvania and Michigan, and only needed either Arizona, Georgia or Wisconsin, not all three. lees1975 Oct 3 #32

I understand what you're saying. I just don't think it will be that close. OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #39

I'm going to work my ass off to make sure you are right. Trueblue Texan Oct 3 #168

After all that Trump did on Jan 6th and they Emile Oct 3 #18

We have no reason to believe what the polls are saying, since they were wrong the last three election cycles. ancianita Oct 3 #19

Harris' internals show the race essentially tied. Self Esteem Oct 3 #26

Exactly what we said in 2018, 2020, 2022: "But regardless, it's close. It will be close. It'll all come down to turnout" ancianita Oct 3 #33

And every one of those elections were close. Self Esteem Oct 3 #41

And we won every one of them. Including all special elections. ancianita Oct 3 #88

2018 and 2022 were mixed. Self Esteem Oct 3 #95

Fair enough. I still hold that 2024 will be better. ancianita Oct 3 #106

I think we win in November. But it'll be close. Self Esteem Oct 3 #107

If "close" works to increase our side's GOTV, that works for me. ancianita Oct 3 #110

We won in 2022? Zeitghost Oct 3 #140

Yes, it was mixed. I did say "fair enough." BUT. We did great for the midterms of an incumbent president. ancianita Oct 3 #142

And you were wrong about the red Wave in 2022 obamanut2012 Oct 3 #104

I don't trust the polls. And I believe it will be a big victory for us. Demsrule86 Oct 3 #36

Well whether you trust her internals or not, they do. Self Esteem Oct 3 #40

But Republicans are also enthusiastic - way more than in 2008 and 2016. lees1975 Oct 3 #63

I haven't seen one poll where Republican enthusiasm is down compared to 2008 or 2016. Self Esteem Oct 3 #73

A lot of people believed that in 2020, too. Mariana Oct 3 #77

yeah, I haven't seen any polls that show great GOP enthusiasm. Where is this person getting their info? LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #94

what is your source for knowing Harris' internal polls? LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #91

I work for my state party. Self Esteem Oct 3 #102

OK, thanks. I think the problem is it's hard to know when an article quotes campaign internal numbers if they are LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #125

Wsas this call made in Brooklyn? How do you know what the insiders are saying? obamanut2012 Oct 3 #101

I don't know what you mean by the Brooklyn comment. I'm not in Brooklyn. Self Esteem Oct 3 #105

Wait Wait WAIT - I'm glad I kept scrolling down. FHRRK Oct 3 #173

They're correct and yes there is sarisataka Oct 3 #24

with all the republicans, including nikki haley's crowd, supporting Kamala samsingh Oct 3 #27

About 50 years ago, comedian Alan Sheman Wednesdays Oct 3 #28

Its all about two things in my mind Tree Lady Oct 3 #29

I've read that if enough people are kept miserable enough for long enough EverHopeful Oct 3 #31

That's the sort of answer I'm looking for. It doesn't help just to call them names. If we... LAS14 Oct 3 #50

Perhaps the media could go to a diner in displacedvermoter Oct 3 #54

Or how about "Fred's Typical Ohio Diner", courtesy of Tom Tomorrow's... keep_left Oct 3 #72

I don't know if you mean this sarcastically or not, but it is, actually.... LAS14 Oct 3 #117

They have been going to these diners for a decade now in red states/districts, and getting the predictable responses. displacedvermoter Oct 3 #129

I consider this the best commentary on this thread h2ebits Oct 3 #112

You can't educate people who are wrapped in hate Keepthesoulalive Oct 3 #123

I was responding to post #31 h2ebits Oct 3 #150

I've been around a long time Keepthesoulalive Oct 3 #153

The polls are not right they are using previous elections. And Demsrule86 Oct 3 #34

It seems the polls give a favorable answer for the people that paid for them. rubbersole Oct 3 #46

People who don't believe in democracy should not vote. NameAlreadyTaken Oct 3 #38

People who don't believe in democracy should move to an authoritarian country. Frank D. Lincoln Oct 3 #174

The polls are fucked up. I don't know why. Just vote, people. Joinfortmill Oct 3 #42

There will be only one poll that matters in 2024 Wednesdays Oct 3 #59

tRump is headed toward a massive defeat. Much bigger than his loss to Biden. Sibelius Fan Oct 3 #43

Yes, and the constant drumbeat of whining 'why is this so close, woe is me' from our side is what they want FrankBooth Oct 3 #51

Illusionary Effect (similar to Madela Affect) because MAGA Media continually repeating lies uponit7771 Oct 3 #47

Yup. And it's no consolation when the numbers drop to "only" 42% would vote for Trump. nt LAS14 Oct 3 #48

"It means 50% of the voting population do not believe in democracy" peppertree Oct 3 #49

Absolutely. markodochartaigh Oct 3 #111

Well said. peppertree Oct 3 #126

The polls and corporate media likes saying it's tied -- it's better for business Rocknation Oct 3 #57

True, but... Mike Nelson Oct 3 #61

For the purposes of this discussion nonvoters may as well not exist TheKentuckian Oct 3 #132

I know DeepWinter Oct 3 #70

No it isn't. Obviously you have completely ignored what happened on January 6, and if you read the preliminary evidence JohnSJ Oct 3 #75

wow obamanut2012 Oct 3 #97

Let the USSC take up the issue of their own immunity. jaxexpat Oct 3 #74

I don't think its tied Roc2020 Oct 3 #76

I've got a question for you. disappearingboy Oct 3 #78

that's pretty much where we are prodigitalson Oct 3 #79

There have always been people in this country who don't believe in American Democracy... appmanga Oct 3 #80

Have you met America? iemanja Oct 3 #82

Half the people voting for him are a mix of low-info types and staunch Republicans who believe he can be reined in. TRHST82 Oct 3 #85

a significant part of it is that there are rigged GOP polls that skew the average LymphocyteLover Oct 3 #90

I don't believe they're accurate. liberalla Oct 3 #99

Same Bayard Oct 3 #115

It's going to be a fucking blowout. IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 3 #100

42 states? iemanja Oct 3 #131

Why are people surprised? We're a tribal, polarized country right now Sympthsical Oct 3 #103

Harris wins 58 times out of 100 according to 538 today. Shermann Oct 3 #108

It seems like it's an abuse relationship, cilla4progress Oct 3 #128

Re. "If they are correct, then there is something very wrong and demented in this country". B.See Oct 3 #130

Yes, it has been clear for some time that there is something very wrong and demented in this country. Martin68 Oct 3 #138

The answer is quite simple... Jon Waters Oct 3 #145

Welcome to DU LetMyPeopleVote Oct 4 #183

It's not tied. Just_Vote_Dem Oct 3 #148

Do the pollsters say how they contact people? viva la Oct 3 #151

My question is how do they factor in those who won't answer calls from numbers they do not recognize or those who don''t JohnSJ Oct 3 #152

It's hard to believe that many non-rabid voters would choose to spend even 5 minutes in the middle of the day viva la Oct 4 #181

I actually think it would take a more than 5 minutes if you look at some of the cross tabs from the legitimate JohnSJ Oct 4 #182

That is why I am hoping for a Dem4life1970 Oct 3 #156

I hope so. JohnSJ Oct 3 #159

It's a cult that goes beyond Trump. They *believe* that they believe in democracy, but... Beartracks Oct 3 #163

There certainly is something very wrong. It's called misogyny. soldierant Oct 3 #165

I hope the polls are proven wrong. It's very depressing to think that ecstatic Oct 3 #166

Let's focus on the challenge of polling right now Metaphorical Oct 3 #167

Fox is popular. CNN also seems to be turning to the right. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 3 #169

The good news Iis Harris will win autorank Oct 3 #171

perhaps the media isn't covering everything orleans Oct 3 #172

Forget the polls, says the American University historian Allan Lichtman, Frank D. Lincoln Oct 4 #175

Imho our problem is more that nearly fifty percent Tweedy Oct 4 #177

Here in the swing area of a swing state PennRalphie Oct 4 #180