Pollsters adjusting and giving extra weight to Trump this election could be 100% wrong. [View all]

[Quixote1818]

I've heard that because Trump over performed the polls in 2016 and 2020 pollsters are weighting the data toward Trump because of the past trends. But should they? This article shows that past trends can mean absolutely nothing in future elections: https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/

So as the above article points out, what Trump did in the polls before may mean nothing this round. This has been shown many times in the past. Here are some points that may suggest polls are weighted for Trump more than they should and in fact they maybe should be weighted against him this round for several reasons and weighted to favor Harris this round instead of Trump.

1. Trump badly under performed the polls for the Republican nomination. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-underperform-michigan-gop-primary-results-1874325
2. Since Dobbs, Republicans have been under performing and Dems over performing.
3. I am betting Harris has a very similar coalition to Obama and the polls under estimated his performance against Romney.

So it's possible they have totally gone the wrong way on how they should be weighting polls in this election. Meaning, a total blowout could be possible.