Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Amishman

(5,832 posts)
34. Don't think in terms of cheating, think in terms of data model bias
Sat Oct 5, 2024, 06:02 AM
Oct 5

All pollsters normalize their data against a model of what they think the electorate will look like - number of R/D/I/O and a bunch of other factors.

Why do they do this? because they can't control the exact distribution of those who choose to respond plus people who are politically engaged are far more likely to both to spend time responding to a poll. Lots of little factors why they can't just use the data collected as-is.

This is where the rub comes in - republican leaning pollsters have data models that are more bullish on various R favoring factors, which is why they consistently slant R versus the rest. Here's the rub - they could be right. Trafalgar was the most accurate pollster in 2016, and in recent years was a A or B ranked pollster by 538 and they are hands down the most R biased. Why? Because we've had several elections over the past decade that have had big polling misses that understated R support.

Modeling the electorate is as much an art as it is a science, and unexpected aggregate misses do happen.

I do not agree with the approach of ignoring polls from right leaning pollsters, it gives a false sense of security. It's like claiming your football team was undefeated - if you ignore the games they lost.

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I've been posting about this too senseandsensibility Oct 4 #1
Yup, I've seen your posts Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #2
Thanks for doing this! senseandsensibility Oct 4 #3
If you remember how we have been overperforming polls wryter2000 Oct 5 #40
I also had a fight on my hands wryter2000 Oct 5 #39
Further essential reading regarding the current state of polling: Fiendish Thingy Oct 4 #4
I read the article a week ago. Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #8
Get rid of everything you don't like, and the results improve! Prairie Gates Oct 4 #5
Nope. Read the article I linked and it will make more sense. Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #7
But what is the definition of "a GOP affiliation"? TheRickles Oct 4 #23
Post Dobbs... SomedayKindaLove Oct 4 #6
WI + MI + PA 270 BWdem4life Oct 4 #9
Hear! Hear! littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #16
Even getting rid of the Republican-leaning polls indicates how close of a race this is. Self Esteem Oct 4 #10
Close enough to lose via suppression, theft, and litigation Blaukraut Oct 4 #14
I hear you, but we have an arsenal too Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #17
I'm not toast. littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #18
No, we're not. People were saying that in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Elessar Zappa Oct 5 #37
Imagine if such polls were never included to push the undecided... GreenWave Oct 4 #28
Election night is going to be scary as hell liberal N proud Oct 4 #11
If you live in a cannabis legal state Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #13
Yes. I think people need to prepare themselves for a very long election night. Self Esteem Oct 4 #15
Only poll that matters is the one taken on 11/5/24 n/t aggiesal Oct 4 #12
That's right, aggiesal. 💯😸❤️ littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #21
With all the vote suppression techniques being employed slightlv Oct 4 #19
She's spectacular. ❤️ littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #22
Wow! Thank You! lucca18 Oct 4 #20
I don't agree with some of the polls you have listed. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 4 #24
They aren't mine - they are from research led by renowned Democratic Strategist Simon Rosenberg Chasing Dreams Oct 5 #35
I hope this is true AdamGG Oct 4 #25
The problem is... ONE State of the Blue Wall and Trump probably wins. WarGamer Oct 4 #26
If Robinson is trailing by same double digit displacedvermoter Oct 5 #31
4 weeks... we'll know soon. WarGamer Oct 5 #32
Why wouldn't the pro-Trump pollsters cheat? Pro-Trump media and pro-Trump lawmakers cheat all the time. Doodley Oct 4 #27
Don't think in terms of cheating, think in terms of data model bias Amishman Oct 5 #34
Accuracy is measured by pollsters' LAST survey each cycle. Chasing Dreams Oct 5 #36
I recommend this week's Science Friday on NPR with regards to polling. GoCubsGo Oct 4 #29
Thing is a supposedly knowledgeable person like displacedvermoter Oct 5 #30
My thoughts all along. Emile Oct 5 #33
Napolitan is a news network that uses RMG to do its field work. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 5 #38
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»*****Breaking -- Harris' ...»Reply #34