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ColinC

(11,092 posts) Sat Oct 26, 2024, 01:30 PM Oct 26

If your gut says Trump will win [View all]

Don't trust it. Our guts are severely damaged after getting punched in it so many times by surprising and horrible election outcomes. Even Nate Silver says not to trust anybodys gut. Not even his.

40 replies

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Highlight:

If your gut says Trump will win [View all] ColinC Oct 26 OP

Nate's guts are only feeling one thing: Gaytano70 Oct 26 #1

Im not a Nate Silver hater and feel that the animosity towards him is a kill the messenger type response ColinC Oct 26 #2

Silver isn't a pollster Deminpenn Oct 26 #5

Yeah he uses the same method with polls as baseball. ColinC Oct 26 #7

So, GIGO Deminpenn Oct 26 #8

I imagine there is some value in it. ColinC Oct 26 #9

So if he's right 40% of the time COL Mustard Oct 26 #18

I mean. Same as if he were right 100% of the time ColinC Oct 26 #19

Baseball players and weather forecasters COL Mustard Oct 26 #22

Yep ColinC Oct 26 #28

Goddess knows why our weather guessers, ooops, forecasters, are still employed. niyad Oct 26 #38

He has his plusses Nasruddin Oct 26 #12

We're in a better position than they are. pat_k Oct 26 #32

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 26 #34

Anybody whose gut is telling them this needs to get off their ass and GOTV. live love laugh Oct 26 #3

We all can do something. I convinced one of my undecided friends in MI to vote for Harris after him telling me for weeks ColinC Oct 26 #4

I think every vote will count COL Mustard Oct 26 #23

And if you feel the abject and deep pain that is fascist fomented fear applegrove Oct 26 #6

There are a lot of people like that who can be swayed with strong personal connections. ColinC Oct 26 #10

Go Colin! Go Colin! Go Colin! applegrove Oct 26 #11

Thanks Applegrove!! ColinC Oct 26 #16

My gut tells me trump will lose the vote but... S/V Loner Oct 26 #13

The courts won't help him. Elessar Zappa Oct 26 #20

I only hope it doesn't go into Congress COL Mustard Oct 26 #24

Thanks. I thought it was that burrito I ate. surfered Oct 26 #14

Part of my disease profile is IBS, so my gut says rude things to me all the time Warpy Oct 26 #15

Polls are less accurate because AdamGG Oct 26 #17

If your gut says Trump will win, go to urgent care immediately. milestogo Oct 26 #21

So long as I breath I will do what I have to do to see Harris win LostOne4Ever Oct 26 #25

Definitely do not trust Nate Silver Tweedy Oct 26 #26

Try a little Mme. Defarge Oct 26 #27

Nate Silver Metaphorical Oct 26 #29

We're in a better position than they are. Believe it. It's True. pat_k Oct 26 #30

The only thing my gut tells me is that Harris has a better chance than polling would make it seem, but not the... RidinWithHarris Oct 26 #31

I hope everyone is right Ontheboundry Oct 26 #33

All true. ColinC Oct 26 #36

My gut just polished off a pint of Denali Extreme Moose Tracks. Xavier Breath Oct 26 #35

If your gut is sensing an Orange Bastard, maybe it is time for a big b.m. SoFlaBro Oct 26 #37

Two words: Alan Lichtman. That is all. Dem4life1970 Oct 27 #39

The new ABC/Ipsos poll acc. to Matt Dowd might calm people's nerves (Lichtman is good enough for me though) Dem4life1970 Oct 27 #40