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5. In my calmer moments, I think there will be a lot of model revising post mortem

Tue Oct 29, 2024, 04:06 PM

Oct 29

I think democrats will meaningfully outperform relative to the polls. The polls just don't line up with everything else. Virtually all signs outside of polling point to a solid Harris victory.

I think afterwards, there will be a lot of pollsters saying things like, gee, I guess we over-adjusted or under-sampled or failed to capture the enthusiasm or our likely voter model is wrong or something something we'll get it right next time.

On the other hand, maybe the polls are accurately reflecting the various voter suppression efforts....

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What do we make of the polls? [View all] HagathaCrispy Oct 29 OP

Yes - nail biting but mostly Republican Polls - will post them in a while... kerry-is-my-prez Oct 29 #1

Why, I can make a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl... TwilightZone Oct 29 #2

Johnny, is that you? John1956PA Oct 29 #3

. . John1956PA Oct 29 #4

And don't call me Shirley! unblock Oct 29 #6

In my calmer moments, I think there will be a lot of model revising post mortem unblock Oct 29 #5

The chairperson of the Harris campaign says that the race is extremely close, TwilightZone Oct 29 #8

the campaigns have incentives to spin the race as close, in order to motivate people to vote. unblock Oct 29 #10

Internal polls are a completely different animal. TwilightZone Oct 29 #11

We don't make anything of the polls Fiendish Thingy Oct 29 #7

The polls and $5.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks Metaphorical Oct 29 #9