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Metaphorical

(2,346 posts)

9. The polls and $5.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks

Tue Oct 29, 2024, 04:30 PM

Oct 29

My suspicion - the MoE on the polls is probably large enough to drive a truck through, and aggregating does you no good when you flood the zone with heavily weighted polls. I don't think a Harris win is guaranteed, but I also think that there are too many open variables at this point to realistically determine where the electorate sits, especially in the EC. I think Pennsylvania is likely a win for Kamala Harris, Wisconsin may be, Michigan probably will be. Georgia could be a tossup, but for that matter Texas and Florida COULD be a tossup. I don't think it's going to be a blowout, but I also don"t think that Trump's going to win even the EC.

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What do we make of the polls? [View all] HagathaCrispy Oct 29 OP

Yes - nail biting but mostly Republican Polls - will post them in a while... kerry-is-my-prez Oct 29 #1

Why, I can make a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl... TwilightZone Oct 29 #2

Johnny, is that you? John1956PA Oct 29 #3

. . John1956PA Oct 29 #4

And don't call me Shirley! unblock Oct 29 #6

In my calmer moments, I think there will be a lot of model revising post mortem unblock Oct 29 #5

The chairperson of the Harris campaign says that the race is extremely close, TwilightZone Oct 29 #8

the campaigns have incentives to spin the race as close, in order to motivate people to vote. unblock Oct 29 #10

Internal polls are a completely different animal. TwilightZone Oct 29 #11

We don't make anything of the polls Fiendish Thingy Oct 29 #7

The polls and $5.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks Metaphorical Oct 29 #9