Dead-heat poll results are improbable

[TwilightZone]

1. Trump's level of support rarely varies.

Except for a relatively short period after January 6th, his approval ratings have been historically stable. They're also historically low, on average, but his support just doesn't change, to the frustration of us all.

It's definitely possible that adjustments since 2020 or 2022 have introduced a bit of flat-lining, but the fact that Trump's support varies so little is certainly a factor. There just isn't much movement available, contrary to what many assert. His current floor and ceiling might be as little as a couple % apart. If so, that's not enough for the polls to show any significant movement.

The wildcard is turnout. If one side or the other - preferably our side - shows up in higher numbers than the polls anticipate and in higher relative numbers than the other side, the results may be very different from what's expected. Many have asserted that this is going to be the case.