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DemocratSinceBirth

(100,361 posts)

40. The larger the popular vote lead the less likely it is to diverge from the Electoral College

Reply to DownriverDem (Reply #39)

Mon Nov 4, 2024, 01:08 PM

Nov 4

The tipping point states are PA and NC and it's about 1.5%. I put it in the original post.

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*****BREAKING A RATED MARIST POLL***** Harris 51% TFG 47% [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Nov 4 OP

but, but the nbc poll........... JohnSJ Nov 4 #1

No way in hell Trump gets 49+ JCMach1 Nov 4 #44

Especially seeing it is a national poll, and the whole West Coast along with NY and most of the North East would JohnSJ Nov 4 #45

The NBC poll is of registered voters senseandsensibility Nov 4 #65

They're just taking out the trash. dchill Nov 4 #68

Thanks for the information, I didn't realize that. JohnSJ Nov 4 #70

She is going to stomp him! North Shore Chicago Nov 4 #2

Absolutely! ShazzieB Nov 4 #59

That orange motherf*cker awesomerwb1 Nov 4 #3

This all day! Dem4life1234 Nov 4 #54

Any insurrectionist should be at 0%. Dark n Stormy Knight Nov 5 #79

Let's go!!! nt LexVegas Nov 4 #4

It's a good poll, but it's NATIONAL. What about in the swing states? Are there polls there as well? nt Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Nov 4 #5

A four point national lead is very likely to lead to an Electoral College win. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 4 #7

But isn't it within the MOE? Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Nov 4 #11

You don't need to repeat... littlemissmartypants Nov 4 #26

This message was self-deleted by its author pnwmom Nov 4 #60

Biden ended up with a 4.5% lead in the 2020 election. n/t whopis01 Nov 4 #63

Marist did swing state polls Deminpenn Nov 4 #49

Marist did swing state polls Deminpenn Nov 4 #50

Steve K. will be right on top of this! Zambero Nov 4 #6

He will be shocked! Stunned! As the results roll in! getagrip_already Nov 4 #19

And the ONLY reason the corporate pollsters and media are "expecting" it at this late date Rocknation Nov 4 #24

Of "registered" voters senseandsensibility Nov 4 #66

When I compare the two campaigns Jerry2144 Nov 4 #8

+1 oasis Nov 4 #13

Oh, there's no doubt she will exceed them. She has got tons of repubs and independent voters added to her Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Nov 4 #15

I've noticed, too NJCher Nov 4 #46

That pretty much sums up my gut feel BlueState Nov 4 #17

Finally a pollster that has the balls not to herd. nt Quixote1818 Nov 4 #9

They will all come to reality for their final polls... getagrip_already Nov 4 #20

This is where I think it'll end up in the popular vote. Self Esteem Nov 4 #10

I think more like 53-45 Johnny2X2X Nov 4 #14

Doubtful. Harris isn't winning by a larger margin than Obama in 2008. Self Esteem Nov 4 #27

stop adding realism to this thread! 😎 NoRethugFriends Nov 4 #32

Agree, i can't see how he is polling what he is debm55 Nov 4 #31

Turnout may still break records, but early voting numbers are partly due to an R strategic shift. TwilightZone Nov 4 #38

Nice SouthernCal_Dem Nov 4 #12

I participated in this poll OneBlueDotS-Carolina Nov 4 #16

Graphics Dennis Donovan Nov 4 #18

Run full out through the tape! TheKentuckian Nov 4 #21

From my perusal of past election results anamnua Nov 4 #22

And that could be 51.4% vs 46.6%, for an actual margin of 4.8% (ie, 5%). TheRickles Nov 4 #23

Click on the link. The details are a bit more sobering. nt LAS14 Nov 4 #25

What are some of the sobering points at the link, in your view? Prairie Gates Nov 4 #29

Sobering bits. LAS14 Nov 4 #33

Thanks for posting those rather than just referring people to the link Prairie Gates Nov 4 #35

based on the large margins i've seen many places for Harris among early voters... jcgoldie Nov 4 #37

And many of those "not yet voted" Zambero Nov 4 #43

I agree kansasobama Nov 4 #48

In context of previous elections, these aren't good indicators for Trump. yardwork Nov 4 #71

No thanks. I don't need more sobering right now. Got enough of that in me already. I'm going with KPN Nov 4 #34

Agree BannonsLiver Nov 4 #41

How can Trump be getting 47%? Thrill Nov 4 #28

Well, they are idiots first... The Madcap Nov 4 #47

That's all he ever gets, no more than that. Klarkashton Nov 4 #61

I'm sensing a LANDSLIDE Emile Nov 4 #30

Trump still has a 47% ceiling askyagerz Nov 4 #36

That's mostly a myth. TwilightZone Nov 4 #56

His actual national votes have never broken 47% askyagerz Nov 4 #62

Stop the National Polls DownriverDem Nov 4 #39

The larger the popular vote lead the less likely it is to diverge from the Electoral College DemocratSinceBirth Nov 4 #40

I like reading them. BannonsLiver Nov 4 #52

How about you just not open the thread rather than trying to dictate what DUers can read? iemanja Nov 4 #53

I know a candidate who wants to dictate what we can day and resd. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 4 #77

Who's going to believe a Marxist poll? usonian Nov 4 #42

Yeah, sure, but what does Harpo say? Hmm? 😏 dchill Nov 4 #69

Not a word! I posted this in response to the fabulous Kamalas mirror scene. usonian Nov 4 #72

Understood. 👍 dchill Nov 4 #73

47%? Tiny fingers still can't get it up. /nt bucolic_frolic Nov 4 #51

STOP it already! James48 Nov 4 #55

"What's wrong with these people?" J_William_Ryan Nov 4 #57

This message was self-deleted by its author pnwmom Nov 4 #58

I'm betting 55% for VP Harris and 44% convicted felon 1% Jill Stein/ other kimbutgar Nov 4 #64

I love reading this! Thank you! liberalla Nov 4 #67

I keep on telling people it's going PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 4 #74

435 theplayer Nov 4 #75

shithole is not getting 47%........................... Lovie777 Nov 4 #76

K & R Emile Nov 4 #78