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In reply to the discussion: Stop "win-washing" [View all]Metaphorical
(2,351 posts)In 2016, I had a bad feeling on the Monday before the election - I didn't think that Clinton was going to win it. There was a lot of arrogance at work on the Dem side, Clinton's campaign was too divisive, too many people were still bitter about Sanders, and it seemed like every week there was just one more thing coming out of right field that likely , yet I also had a strong feeling that Trump was doing a lot better than the polls indicated.
2024, on the other hand, was getting worrisome through July, then Biden withdrew in favor of Kamala. She has, since then, waged one of the most flawless campaigns I've seen in forty years. She's built coalitions, she has avoided any scandal, she has defined her opponent far more than Trump was able to define her, she has even managed to make the media sit up and beg, despite the deck being very much stacked against her, and she has done it with a laugh and a smile. Trump, on the other hand, has gone from one dumpster fire to another, quite literally in one case, has watched as his crowds have dwindled so that he can't even fit small venues, and has outstayed his welcome.
If she loses after all that, it's because the system has become so compromised that no one could fairly win against Trump, yet, what I'm seeing is that Trump's campaign staff is already shopping their resumes. This is not the sign of a campaign that thinks it's going to win, or even get within challenging distance.
Now, it's possible that the polls are perfectly correct, that the race is incredibly tight, and Trump could pull off an EC upset, but neither the evidence nor the vibes mesh up with this particular scenario. I don't believe it's going to be a blowout, but nor do I think there will be any doubt that she won, except in Trump's Aderall-ravaged mind.