Joint statement by the Heads of Government of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Sweden

[Emrys]

44. His nomination of Kellogg as special envoy is one of the more credible Trump's made.

He at least talks a good campaign, and some in Ukraine are encouraged as he's actually spent time there, shown some signs of being willing to listen, and doesn't seem to have many illusions about the danger of the axis that's developed around Russia on the international scene, which doesn't serve any of the US's interests, nor necessarily Trump's. He's also said that any negotiated end or pause to hostilities with territorial concessions would likely only be a fallback until Putin's finally out of the picture. He also doesn't consider any of Russia's nuclear threats to be at all credible as it's so outgunned.

Trump isn't going to get his boasted end to the war in one day. I've no doubt he'll get a pass from most of the media and some of his supporters for that. But from previous statements, Kellogg's strategy will involve pressuring Russia to the negotiating table by threatening to step up arms supplies to Ukraine, and actually going through with that threat if necessary, which isn't going to go down well with Trump's baser base because they've swallowed all the Russian propaganda about billions of dollars that could be spent on them instead being shovelled into a crooked far-away country along with kickbacks for the US regime. They're almost certainly beyond being convinced otherwise. Maybe Trump'll be able to throw them enough red meat in other areas in the early days to keep them distracted. Maybe Kellogg will be able to convince him that his image and place in history will be enhanced if Ukraine comes out of this better than any of us might have feared or hoped.

But this shouldn't be the US's conflict to resolve alone however it sees fit. If it wants to go isolationist, well, some leaders in Europe seem willing to step up. They have far more invested in whatever shape of settlement of the conflict comes about. I've heard the unfortunate term used: "Coalition of the Willing". I probably don't have to tell you why that title has unsettling resonances for me, though the concept is sound.

Meanwhile, Russia's economy is staggering along toward collapse. In the next six months or so, the pressures will only get worse and its international standing will only worsen.