That old Cassandra feeling is back again. [View all]

[Tommy Carcetti]

In 2016, after Trump first won, there were a lot of people insisting, "Don't worry. Trump won't be as extreme a President as he was a candidate. He was probably just saying those things to placate his base to get elected. Now that he'll be President, he'll pivot and be more of a moderate figure. He'll use his business skills to negotiate deals with Democrats in Congress and he'll get some meaningful things done."

I personally knew this was not going to happen, and said so at the time.

Trump took office, and he certainly did not pivot. He was just as extreme and divisive a President as he was a candidate. And I knew the "dealmaker" thing was bullshit from the get-go, because I knew Trump was in fact a very shitty and incompetent businessman and the whole "Art of the Deal" thing was a superficial gimmick. He doesn't know how to get along with other people who think differently than him, and he'll just want to tear them down instead.

Flash forward to 2020 after Trump lost the election. I remember hearing a lot of, "Trump will eventually concede his loss, albeit reluctantly, and just slink back to Mar-a-Lago. But then he'll get to relish playing 'Kingmaker' in helping to choose other Republicans for the next round of elections."

Once again, I knew the "kingmaker" thing would never, ever happen. Trump's ego would not allow him to cede the spotlight to others, even if they appeared to have his blessing. And he would never, ever admit to losing because he's incapable of doing that. He'll incite the worst, most violent of his supporters who are willing to act in his name because those are the ones who pay him homage and are truly loyal to him where others are not.

And lo and behold, there was no concession or peaceful transfer of power. And we had January 6th. And Trump was only interested in crowning himself as his own successor and running again.

Now we are in 2024. I've heard a lot of, "Don't take the whole 'retribution' talk seriously. He's not actually going to go after his opponents for real. That's just Trump being Trump. And we survived his last term, so I'm sure we'll be fine again this go around. Maybe he's learned more. Maybe he'll stand up against Putin this time around and defend Ukraine because he'll see Zelensky as strong and determined, and doesn't he like strong leaders?"

None of that is going to happen. He's dead serious about wanting to go after his opponents, and if he gets a troglodyte like Kash Patel into the FBI, he's going to try to make that happen. He hasn't learned a thing about being a good leader. We barely survived his last term only because of a House majority in the second half and guardrails within the White House. There are no guardrails this time, only sworn loyalists. And he's not going to stand up to Putin or other authoritarians. The only "strong" leaders Trump admires are the authoritarian types. He couldn't care less about strong, principled democratic minded leaders such as Zelensky and he'd just as well see them lose.

I hate to sound so pessimistic this morning but I've seen all the same Pollyannaish optimism about Trump dissolve like sugar in tea as reality sets in. Time and time and time again.

He will not get better. He will only try to make things better for himself, and through that, worse for the rest of us.