conventional in the sense of troops, planes, ships etc. It may be more something like sabotage of various things on a large scale etc.
The real question for Iranian leadership is what do they gain by just continuing the southern Lebanon strategy they've been using for decades now? Irritation? What kind of goal is that? Keep pouring money into something that only accomplishes that weak result at best?
As far as tactics the detestable Putin has shown that an impact can be made from even a small amount of contact rather than some major push. Targeting individuals, as Putin has done, using toxic material accomplishes generating a lot of fear and resource expense in responding with heightened security/investigation etc. The calculation for Iran as always is what will they be willing to risk as a price to pay for an action? It may well be that, despite US intelligence saying no, Iran is waiting for their day when our seismographs confirm an underground detonation. If that were to occur it would immediately change the calculation of the US/World response to Iran. Every nation that has developed and tested a nuclear weapon capability has immediately been treated in a much more "hands off" manner by the West especially. That fact is not lost on countries. We may well be seeing Iran biding it's time for a reason we will not like or be able to erase. It has always been the great fear for the world that a hateful regime, like in Iran or North Korea, would use a nuclear weapon. Because the unanswered questions are always how to respond and where does it end.
Thankfully the insane moron in North Korea has not acted with his capability and he is too stupid to know how to leverage what he has for getting the world to make things better for his country. His paranoia about control is so complete that he actually fears not having his people be desperate and dependent on him even for fuel to stay warm. But China has much to say about everything in NK also. So the main threat from NK having the weapons might be more of one of proliferation of technology etc. at least until the despot is gone. The case in Iran is different somewhat partly because of the lack of a single iron-fisted paranoid maniac in control. You have multiple aspects in Iran that can push one way or the other at various times for influence and control. This can be a benefit somewhat or it can be more dangerous because of the different spheres of influence. In other words Iran can be more of a risk at this point to go in more than one direction or be "pushed" and have less predictability. NK will not use the nuclear capability if China says no. That is pretty reliably established despite any public "thrashing" about. Iran on the other hand is not as constrained. China and Russia have an influence for sure but it is nowhere near as controlling as in the case of NK. Also NK doesn't have the grievance of multiple attacks on it's soil in recent years and the "heat from the street" so to speak to deal with. Iran does.
So where do we go from here? It does not appear to be ratcheting down.
https://thebulletin.org/2024/04/why-iran-may-accelerate-its-nuclear-program-and-israel-may-be-tempted-to-attack-it/
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