Maybe this won't be the "landslide" resembling those of the past, but I think it's going to get close.

[pat_k]

3. Yes. Trends are good, but it remains a toss up.

The trends are fantastic to see so quickly, but we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. Overconfidence suppresses turnout in a way that can be as damaging as hopelessness and immobilization.

Cook Political Report Ratings here:
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Even if you moved MI, PA, and WI from "Toss Up" to "Lean
Dem" we would just make 270.

And the Times Siena poll is actually within the margin of error, which is why those states will remain "Toss Up" until polls get clearer.

But, just yesterday, AZ, GA, and NV were moved from Lean R to Toss Up. A VERY good thing. Before that, we HAD to win all the toss up states to get to 270.

Now, the race really is a toss up.

We are Absolutely heading the the right direction, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Paywall-Free Poll Crosstabs:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B04.D7Px.G-jreqlblAvM&smid=url-share

Some very interesting stuff in the details.

Re: Margin of Error

The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points in Wisconsin. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.