I'm happy that Ohio enshrined abortion rights into their state constitution, but that makes me concerned about our fight [View all]

[In It to Win It]

One of my biggest worries when it comes to abortion politics and policy in Florida is putting abortion on the ballot again and risking that it will fail.

I don't mind a vote preserving the status quo, because that is a much easier fight. For decades now, the state of Florida has recognized a state constitutional right to abortion, via a Florida Supreme Court cased called In re T.W. that was decided in 1989. The abortion fight in the state of Florida has been similar to the federal fight to overturn Roe. Our job in the fight was preserving the status quo, maintaining that state constitutional right to abortion.

Preserving the status quo primarily occurred in two ways; (1) suing state officials in state court using state Supreme Court precedent when they try to enforce stricter abortion policies; and (2) voting against ballot measures that would have removed existing abortion protections.

Over the last 20 years, the GOP-led Florida Legislature has tried to implement stricter abortion laws. Until recently, they went inch-by-inch, and never went too far too fast; a little bit at a time to see what they can get away with. Every time, the state government would be sued and eventually the Florida Supreme Court would strike down their new abortion law as unconstitutional. The Florida Supreme Court has always upheld that precedent. As a result, the legislature would then refer the issue to the people. They would put proposals on the ballot to give themselves greater authority to regulate abortion. I think they only won one abortion-related ballot initiative, which gave the legislature the authority to regulate parental notice on abortions for minors. Since their laws would be struck down and their ballot measures were largely rejected, the state legislature had no avenues for enacting stricter abortion laws.

The difference now is the composition of the Florida Supreme Court. Until this year, an abortion case has never been heard by a Florida Supreme Court with zero Democratic appointees. The popular expectation is that, like SCOTUS with Dobbs, this Court will overrule In re T.W..

That brings me to why I have been so afraid of putting an affirmative right to abortion on the ballot. Before 2019, the Florida Supreme Court was our best bet for preserving abortion rights. Why take the risk of putting it on the ballot to possibly fail at getting 60% of the vote if the law already favors our position? Now, it seems like that may not be an option in the future and we have to rely on a ballot measure to provide an affirmative right to abortion. The Florida Constitution would require 60% of voters to vote "yes" on an affirmative right to abortion. That is a steeper hill to climb than getting 40.01% of people to to vote "no" when we were trying to preserve the status quo. The fear is that it won't get the necessary 60%, and therefore would embolden anti-abortion legislators and the anti-abortion movement. The fear is that we will have no recourse other than relying on a currently-weakened state Democratic Party to win elections on rigged maps.

I'm looking around at all of the abortion-related ballot measures and I'm looking for a sign of hope among more Republican-leaning and moderate states, but there is one common trend I can't overlook. None of the ballot measures put an affirmative right to abortion receive into a state constitution received a 60% "yes" vote. I'm excluding California, which did receive greater than 60% "yes" votes, because the electorate is more liberal and Democratic-leaning.

The 2022 ballot measures in Kentucky and Kansas were votes to preserve the status quo, rather than adding the right. Kansas got close with about 59% but it's not 60%. Kentucky got a little over 50%.

Montana had a proposed "born alive" amendment in 2022 that would have required medical care for infants supposedly "born alive after an attempted abortion." That was voted down with 52% voting "no."

Michigan and Vermont enshrined a right to an abortion in their state constitutions in 2022. In Vermont, 76% of voters voted "yes" for enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution. Just as significant, the state legislature gave the issue to the people to vote on. Michigan is a more moderate state, and about 57% of voters chose "yes" on enshrining abortion rights into their state constitution.

Obviously, yesterday Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights into their state constitution with about 57% of voters voting "yes" to add abortion rights to their state constitution.

Luckily for Ohio, they don't need 60%. Unfortunately for Florida, we do [side-eyeing people that voted for that in 2006 👀].

Our last abortion-related ballot measure in 2012 to remove the state constitutional right to abortion got a 55% "no" vote. They had to get a 60% "yes" vote to approve a constitutional amendment that would remove abortion rights from the state constitution, effectively overturning the Florida Supreme Court's precedent. The state has only gotten more crybaby-leaning Republican-leaning since then.

The magic number I keep looking for among moderate states and Republican-leaning states is 60%. Can we reach 60%? Not 55%, not 59.9%, but an undeniable 60% supermajority.

While I am extremely grateful to live in a state where issues can be put directly on the ballot by citizens, 60% is tough and I'm honestly skeptical.

However, when the proposed amendment does get on the ballot, I will try my absolute best to ensure that it passes.