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kurtcagle

(2,342 posts)
3. It will get worse
Sat Sep 22, 2018, 04:20 PM
Sep 2018

Universities are subsidized businesses. Loans are getting harder to get, those loans do not go as far, and at some point, there is a break-even point where the cost of a university education is more than the lifetime earning boost that it brings. Factor into this the increasing perils of immigration in Trump's America and the increasing quality of universities in China, India, Africa and the Middle East, and many foreign students may likely decide that it is no longer worth paying the international student premium + ridiculously high tuition rates for an American education

Additionally, the previous cohort (what constitutes the latter half of the Millennials and the first half of GenZ in popular parlance, though I actually believe this should be treated as a separate generation) has also mostly moved OUT of university at this point, save for those in grad school. On top of that, in about seven years time (2025) there is a steep drop-off of incoming college students due to the birth rate decline in 2008 that kicked off the Great Recession (and that is still falling). My expectation is that between 2025 and 2040, 25% of all four-year universities will close due to lack of students and the inability to lower tuition rates. It will likely spell the end of a majority of for-profit universities.

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