General election 2017: How reliable are the polls?

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Quite notable demographic splits by now

Take this Survation poll: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Final-MoS-Post-BBC-Event-Poll-020617SWCH-1c0d4h9.pdf and the "weighted and likely to vote" figure from table 4:

Men: Con 45.6% Lab 31.4%
Women: Con 34.1% Lab 47%

18-34: Con 24.4% Lab 57.1%
35-54: Con 32.3% Lab 45%
55+: Con 56% Lab 23%

and the region with the largest Tory lead over Labour is ... Wales! (A small sample there, so maybe not reliable. The Plaid vote has collapsed in this poll - just 4 out of 57 surveyed). After that, their next largest lead is in the Midlands, not the South.