Who's your MP?

[muriel_volestrangler]

49. 2 recent MRP polls both show the Lib Dem leading there, but with quite different margins

YouGov has Lib Dem 46%, Tory 29%; Savanta has Lib Dem 35%, Tory 31%.

The boundary changes and the swings against the Tories (big, certainly, but to who?) have made it very difficult for the MRP models - here are the ones for my own constituency, also heavily redrawn:

Electoral Calculus 20-27/5 LD 43.9% Con 25.7% Lab 14.2% Ref 12.6% Gr 2.7%
YouGov 24/5-1/6 LD 31% Con 33% Lab 19% Ref 10% Gr 5%
Survation 22/5-2/6 LD 31% Con 29.3% Lab 23.5% Ref 11.3% Gr 2.8%
Survation 31/5-13/6 LD 27.5% Con 29.5% Lab 23.6% Ref 12.5% Gr 5.8%
More in Common 22/5-17/6 LD 53% Con 31% Lab 9% Ref 4% Gr 2%
Savanta 7-18/6 LD 37.6% Con 28.1% Lab 19.8% Ref 12% Gr 2.4%
YouGov 11-18/6 LD 34% Con 29% Lab 14% Ref 16% Gr 5%

So that's varied from a Tory 2 point lead to a Lib Dem 22 point lead.