John Kerry
In reply to the discussion: Defense Secretary? [View all]Mass
(27,315 posts)(in passing, note that Kornaki is not a Kerry fan - He is already framing Kerry as SoS as Obama caving to the GOP)
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/13/john_kerry_and_the_ghost_of_scott_brown/
Apparently, Barack Obama is serious about rewarding John Kerry with a top Cabinet post in his second administration. The Massachusetts senator, who delivered a rousing convention speech in Charlotte and played Mitt Romney in the presidents debate prep sessions, is reportedly under consideration to run either the Defense or State Departments.
Right now, most of the speculation is focused on the Pentagon, with Obama preferring to place his longtime friend Susan Rice at State. But Republican attacks on Rice over the Benghazi episode threaten to produce a bloody confirmation battle if Obama taps her. Democrats will have 55 votes (counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders) in the Senate come January, so in theory Obama would have the numbers to win that battle. But some of those Democrats like, for instance, West Virginias Joe Manchin could face home state pressure to defect if it became a clearly partisan fight.
Maybe Obama, emboldened by his victory last week, will embrace a confrontation with the GOP over Rice. But if hes dissuaded, then Kerry could be his fallback option. And if not State, then Kerry is being floated as a potential replacement for Leon Panetta at the Defense Department.
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The stumbling block is this: If Kerry takes an administration post, it will open his Senate seat and trigger a special election sometime in 2013. And that, Democrats fear, could open the door for Scott Brown, who was defeated by Elizabeth Warren last week, to make a comeback.
There is something to be said for this fear. While he lost last week, Brown retains a committed following and remains one of the more popular politicians in Massachusetts and definitely the most popular Republican. And in a special election, voter turnout would be down significantly from the presidential year swell that sank him last week, and the voting universe would probably look more like the one that elected him in January 2010. And while Browns addition wouldnt change the Senates partisan balance next year, it could have ramifications in 2014, when Democrats will face a tough map and the prospect of several lost seats.
But even though Brown would be formidable, the threat he poses to Democrats may be overstated.
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Browns five-point special election win over Martha Coakley in 10 remains the only victory for Republicans in a race for federal office in Massachusetts since 1994. Hes also the only Republican to win one of the states Senate seats since 1972. Some unique circumstances contributed to his surprise victory of Coakley. Hed by no means be a shoo-in in a special election next year especially since, unlike in 10, Democrats wouldnt take the race for granted. Already, there is talk that Governor Deval Patrick wouldnt use the states interim appointment law to anoint a caretaker senator during the campaign that this time, hed appoint someone whod run for the seat, giving that individual some of the advantages of incumbency.
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