Calling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

[progree]

3. All's I know is I'd be a lot poorer if I had listened to the "fiscal sanity" permabears

like Grantham all along. That link at the bottom shows also what if the money had been invested in T-bills and bonds, a refuge for the "fiscally sane" and compares to the S&P 500.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

Like the graph, it is inclusive of all the great and minor crashes, those weren't left out.

I don't know anyone who is been able to consistently time the market, so I don't know when to "make money" and when to "conserve capital". My sources have been resolute: don't try to time the market, maintain one's target allocation.

I remember a financial seminar I went to in the early 80's, and one handout was a list of about 20 scary reasons not to invest. As an illustration that the doom-and-gloomers and perma-bears and the "fiscally sane" urging "caution" can always point to dozens of things wrong with the world situation, fiscal policy, the markets, you name it. The "death of equities" was a popular theme back then.

Oh, by the way, that was a period of high (though declining) inflation. Also the start of the greatest bull market in history.