Calling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

[progree]

5. Yes, you've mentioned that there have been long and flat down periods, and I totally agree

Nothing that I've written, none of the graphs or tables that I have shown have left those out.

The trouble is I don't know when the top of the market is. I don't know when the bottom of the market is. I know if I had listened to "fiscally sane" Grantham in 2010, I would have missed out on a 3.6 fold increase (and that doesn't include dividends). For fear of a TEMPORARY halving.

Well, in November 2010 when he said stocks would "crack" in 2011 or 2012, I looked at the Vanguard S&P 500's index fund, VFINX. On November 15, 2010 it was 89.92 when adjusted for dividends. Now 409.32. That's a 4.55-fold increase over 11.20 years, which is a 14.49% annualized average return.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VFINX/history?period1=1288569600&period2=1291075200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true

I addressed the issue of investing at the very worst time, at the very top of the housing bubble market in this post https://www.democraticunderground.com/11213498

A lot more fun than "conserving capital" in 3-4% bond funds.

EDIT: Just to be clear again. I am NOT advocating investing at the top of the market. YES YES YES, its the worst possible timing. But even with this worst possible timing, it still did better than bonds over the long run.

If you can forecast market tops and bottoms, that is absolutely great Maybe you can share with your fellow progressives how to do it so we can contribute more to worthwhile candidates and causes, and live better lives too.