It was a hot topic here at DU. Their critical thinking skills barely increased over 4 years, the amount of studying decreased over the last 30-40 years.
They didn't stop with that study because there was this nagging doubt that they actually had answered the right question. A year later they said they hadn't.
In most schools what they found was true. Because the sample was so large and all-inclusive, they averaged two groups of kids.
The first was a large group of kids who went to mostly Tier 2 and Tier 3 colleges. They were barely prepared for college. They graduated with a minimum of effort and bothering their beautiful minds about much of anything. Notice I said "mostly". That's important.
The second was a smaller group of kids who went mostly to good Tier 1 colleges. Lots of Ivy Leaguers. They made truly impressive gains in their learning, they were well prepared for college, and put in a lot of hours learning more in college. Again, notice I said "mostly."
They found more. The first group of kids got jobs, but not always great ones. They advanced slowly to the top. Almost all of the Ivy League kids got great jobs and advanced quickly towards the top.
But they found more. Some of the first group of kids, after putting in their time, had their careers take off. They did well in school, but their pieces of paper didn't get them entrance into great jobs with great possibilities for advancement. It took them a few years to prove themselves and to right-fit themselves with an employer or career. That "few years" in the wilderness hurt their careers long-term. Mostly those who went to Tier 2 and Tier 3 schools turned out to be adequate.
Some of the second group of kids, after being hired to great jobs with great opportunities for advancement, stalled. They advanced very, very slowly, and often were sidetracked. They had the paper, but they didn't have what it took upstairs.
In other words, "mostly" mattered. Most of those who went to the wrong level of school took longer to find their way but some, no doubt, crapped out along the way. Most of those who went to the right school stayed on track: If top-ranked, their careers went well; if not top ranked, their careers muddled along. A few, no doubt, were pushed along by inertia.
Their conclusion was that elite-school status gets you in the door. What happens after that is mostly you, with a bit of chance. Non-elite school status can make it difficult to get in the door, and most don't get in the door. It takes a couple of years of work and a bit of luck to show your mettle and get on the track you probably should have been on.
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