World CO2 emissions may be peaking - I'm sure I'll catch a lot of flak for posting this [View all]

[progree]

Last edited Mon Jul 29, 2024, 02:32 AM - Edit history (10)

but I thought I should share it anyway, FWIW.

A Major Milestone: Global Climate Pollution May Have Just Peaked (CO2 emissions -Progree), WhoWhatWhy (originally published by Yale Climate Connections -Progree), 7/25/24

According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same period in 2023. Many experts believe that the clean energy transition has reached the point where emissions will stabilize and then begin to decline. The critical milestone of peak climate pollution might be happening right now.

...

This story by Dana Nuccitelli was originally published by Yale Climate Connections and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.

Much more at : https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-major-milestone-global-climate-pollution-may-have-just-peaked/ar-BB1qCvOt

(there's a lot on China and its slowed economy)

I don't know anything about Yale Climate Connections, other than it is connected to Yale University by more than just sharing the same name, FWIW.
https://www.google.com/search?q=yale+climate+connections&oq=yale+climate

I know zero about the Carbon Monitor Project, "WhoWhatWhy" and Dana Nuccitelli

The atmosphere is like a slightly leaky bathtub. For millennia, the water level has remained constant, as the dripping faucet's flow rate has matched the drain leakage rate. But since the beginning of industrial times, the faucet drip rate has increased and increased, while the drain leakage rate goes up much more slowly (a function of water pressure which in turn is a function of water level). So the water level keeps rising.

If what the article says might be true, we're near or at the point where the drip rate is no longer increasing. But the drip rate, perhaps constant, perhaps declining slightly, is still higher than the drain leakage rate, so the water level will keep going up.

So too with the atmospheric CO2 levels. Turning the "faucet" back a few percent or a quarter is not going to stop the CO2 level from rising. It needs to be turned back to about almost where it was in pre-industrial times in order for the CO2 level to eventually stabilize.

(This was an issue during the Covid shutdowns where emissions did decrease for a while, but CO2 levels in the atmosphere kept rising, and people wondered how can that be)

But then who the fuck cares about any of this. All that matters is that the GDP growth went up more than expected, and Fox News hosts are flustered about that. 83% Fossil-fueled growth, I might add

Edited to add - I did briefly look at the Carbon Monitor Project (https://carbonmonitor.org/). It appears that it is strictly about CO2 emisssions, not all greenhouse gas emissions. I modified my parethetical comment in the article title above from " (greenhouse gas emissions -Progree) " to " (CO2 emissions -Progree) " to reflect my new understanding.

Click on the Variation button. It shows "January 1st -> May 31st, 2024 vs. January 1st -> May 30th 2023" Then hover the mouse over WLD (which is World). It says "All sectors" have increased +1.6%".

I can't find anything about the OP's excerpt's statement "total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same period in 2023", but if I download the data I might see that.

EDITED TO ADD 7/28 1240 PM ET: muriel_volestrangler (see #8) downloaded the data and found the above quote to be dubious at best. I did some work and found the above statement is true only if interpreted as between the end of February and the beginning of May! In plain English, it's true only in the 2-month period March 1 thru April 30.
. . . I'll be checking the 0.1% increase from 2022 to 2023 statement below hopefully today. /END EDIT 7/28 1240p

The top of the page says "Global CO2 emissions for 2023 increased by only 0.1% relative to 2022 (following increases of 5.4% and 1.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively), reaching 35.8 Gt CO2. Check our comment on Nature Reviews: Earth & Environment"

Again, this is CO2 emissions, not all ghg emissions. I worry about methane emissions and secondary emissions of both CO2 and methane from e.g. permafrost melting that I don't think are included. I don't think secondary emissions are included in most reports on ghg emissions /END EDIT

Edited to add 1205 AM ET 7/27 Some still seem to be having difficulty with this. Looking at what's quoted 2 paragraphs above, CO2 emissions increased 5.4% from 2020 to 2021, 1.9% from 2021 to 2022, and 0.1% from 2022 to 2023. Doing the math and working backwards, that means we've gone from emissions of 33.300 Gt CO2 in 2020 to 35.097 Gt in 2021 to 35.764 Gt in 2022 to 35.8 Gt in 2023. If emissions have indeed peaked, it means CO2 emissions in 2024 will also be 35.8 GT (or less), ditto for 2025, 2026, and so on.

As before, the land, flora, and oceans don't have the ability to absorb anywhere near that amount of CO2 per year, so atmospheric CO2 levels will continue to climb and climb. And climb. And as before, this is CO2, not all GHG, and very likely doesn't include any secondary emissions of any kind

And I changed my OP title from "World greenhouse gas emissision may be peaking" to "World CO2 emissions may be peaking" /END EDIT

EDITED TO ADD 7/28 1240 PM ET and 1010 PM ET - see above where I placed it in context - the slight decline that Carbonmonitor.org finds between Feb and May 2024 compared to the same months in 2023 applies only to the period March 1 - April 30.

The deceptive wording that was used (calling it "climate pollution" when it is only CO2, not all GHG) -- and saying the slight decline "from February to May" (when it's really only end of February to beginning of May -- i.e. March 1 thru April 30) -- is on Yale Climate Connections, not on the CarbonMonitor.org.

Anyway, from January 1 thru May 31, 2024 over the same period in 2023, CO2 emissions are 1.6% higher per CarbonMonitor.org [that includes an extra day in 2024, leap day, without it, it is 1.0% higher].

If everything CarbonMonitor.org says is true, and I haven't caught them in an error or misleading statement yet, and if 2024 continues to be an adjusted 1.0% higher than 2023 through year end, then it looks like we'll have: 2021: +5.4%, 2022: +1.9%, 2023: +0.1%, and 2024: +1.0%, with 2024 over 2023 adjusted down by subtracting out the extra leap day. So it's a little premature to call this a peaking or a peaking in progress.

And the carbon monitor is counting just primary CO2 emissions, as AFAIK (I skimmed through carbonmonitor.org's Methods link, 34 pages). Secondary emissions are not included AFAIK, nor are other ghg emissions (primary and secondary) like methane AFAIK.

I'll be at least checking out the "2023: +0.1%" claim, but it might take a couple days to get at it/End Edit 7/28