University of Arizona: Ice age clues point to more extreme weather patterns in our future [View all]

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https://news.arizona.edu/news/ice-age-clues-point-more-extreme-weather-patterns-our-future

Ice age clues point to more extreme weather patterns in our future
By Niranjana Rajalakshmi, University Communications

The last ice age peaked around 20,000 years ago and was marked by extensive glaciation and dramatic climate shifts that reshaped Earth's oceans, landscapes and ecosystems. A new study led by the University of Arizona suggests that Earth's last ice age may provide crucial insights into future El Niño weather events. El Niño is one of the most influential climate patterns affecting global weather.

The study, published in Nature, combines data from ancient shells of marine organisms with advanced climate modeling to shed light on how El Niño patterns might change in a warming world.

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The study found that El Niño variability was significantly lower during the Last Glacial Maximum compared to the present day, and that future extreme El Niño events could become more prevalent as the planet warms. This could lead to more intense and frequent weather disruptions worldwide. Importantly, these findings suggest a common mechanism of extreme El Niño variations under both ice age and future conditions, allowing the researchers to validate the climate model's prediction.

"This gives us more confidence in the model's projections for the future," Thirumalai said. "If it can accurately simulate past climate changes, it's more likely to give us reliable predictions about future changes in the El Niño system."

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Thirumalai, K., DiNezio, P.N., Partin, J.W. et al. Future increase in extreme El Niño supported by past glacial changes. Nature (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07984-y