University of Arizona: Ice age clues point to more extreme weather patterns in our future

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1. University of Colorado Boulder: 1 in 2 El Nino events could be extreme by mid-century

https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/09/25/1-2-el-nino-events-could-be-extreme-mid-century

1 in 2 El Niño events could be extreme by mid-century
Sept. 25, 2024 • By Yvaine Ye

With the climate pattern known as El Niño in full force from mid-2023 to mid-2024, global temperatures broke records for 12 months in a row. As one of the strongest El Niño events on record, it was likely the main culprit of unprecedented heat, floods and droughts worldwide.

In a new study published Sep. 25 in the journal Nature, a CU Boulder climate scientist and collaborators reveal that the planet could see more frequent extreme El Niño events by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.

“It’s pretty scary that 2050 is not very far away,” said Pedro DiNezio, the paper’s co-lead author and associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. “If these extreme events become more frequent, society may not have enough time to recover, rebuild and adapt before the next El Niño strikes. The consequences would be devastating.”

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During an extreme El Niño, the impacts on global weather tend to be more severe. For example, during the winter of 1997-98, El Niño brought record rainfall to California, causing devastating landslides that killed more than a dozen people. Over the same period, the planet lost about 15% of its coral reefs due to prolonged warming.

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