Should the Phoenix Arise; the Bateman Equation and Wind Energy.

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. 22 Years ago, you were a true believer in Nuclear Power

You made up your mind, and refused to be confused by any new facts.

https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary

Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions
Executive summary
A new dawn for nuclear energy?

Nuclear energy can help make the energy sector's journey away from unabated fossil fuels faster and more secure. Amid today’s global energy crisis, reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels has become the top energy security priority. No less important is the climate crisis: reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by mid-century requires a rapid and complete decarbonisation of electricity generation and heat production. Nuclear energy, with its 413 gigawatts (GW) of capacity operating in 32 countries, contributes to both goals by avoiding 1.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of global emissions and 180 billion cubic metres (bcm) of global gas demand a year. While wind and solar PV are expected to lead the push to replace fossil fuels, they need to be complemented by dispatchable resources. As today’s second largest source of low emissions power after hydropower, and with its dispatchability and growth potential, nuclear – in countries where it is accepted – can help ensure secure, diverse low emissions electricity systems.

Advanced economies have lost market leadership. Although advanced economies have nearly 70% of global nuclear capacity, investment has stalled and the latest projects have run far over budget and behind schedule. As a result, the project pipelines and preferred designs have shifted. Of the 31 reactors that began construction since the beginning of 2017, all but 4 are of Russian or Chinese design.

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Restrictions on nuclear power remain in certain countries, driven by concerns about safety and waste. The 2011 accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant in Japan following a major earthquake undermined public trust in nuclear power, underscoring the need for robust, independent regulatory oversight. Accident risks are one of the main factors behind bans on nuclear power or policies to phase it out. While there is progress on disposing of high-level nuclear waste, with three countries having approved sites, gaining public and political acceptance has been challenging.

The policy landscape is changing, opening up opportunities for a nuclear comeback. More than 70 countries, covering three-quarters of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, have pledged to cut their emissions to net zero. While renewables would provide the largest share of low emissions electricity and many countries either do not foresee the need or do not want a role for nuclear power, a growing number of countries have also announced plans to invest in nuclear. The United Kingdom, France, China, Poland and India have recently announced energy strategies that include substantial roles for nuclear power. The United States is investing in advanced reactor designs.

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The reality is that we need to deploy clean energy sources ASAP, and nuclear fission simply takes too long, and costs too much. I do not advocate shutting down existing reactors, so long as they are well maintained and well sited (that would be foolhardy.) In the long run, we will need some sort of “baseload” power. "4th Generation" Nuclear is at an apparent standstill. I think nuclear fusion is likely to eclipse it.

https://newatlas.com/energy/first-officially-approved-us-gen-iv-nuclear-reactor/

First officially approved Gen IV nuclear reactor in the US breaks ground
By David Szondy
July 31, 2024

Kairos Power has broken ground at Oak Ridge on the first officially approved Generation IV reactor ever in the US and the first non-light-water reactor in 50 years. It is being constructed alongside a non-nuclear demonstration unit that will help inform the design of the new reactor facility.

Despite being one of the pioneering nations in the field of civilian nuclear power, the United States has fallen far behind even what were once non-players like China and India. There are a number of reasons for this, some political and some economic, but the drive to cut carbon emissions while sustaining a modern industrial society is causing nuclear reactors to make a comeback in more advanced forms.

On July 17, 2024, Kairos Power began construction at Oak Ridge, Tennessee on its Hernes low-power demonstration reactor. It won't be generating electricity for the grid. Instead, its function will be to develop Kairos's molten fluoride salt-cooled pebble-bed reactor, which is an inherently safe design that is capable of shutting itself down and keeping the reactor core safely cool in the event of an accident.

Kairos

In addition, the company is building a second plant at Oak Ridge, called ETU 3.0, that is essentially a non-nuclear version of Hermes. This test bed will allow engineers to study the machinery in operation without worrying about radiation and let them find ways to make the construction and operation of such a nuclear station more economical. This is extremely important because the major cost of nuclear power isn't the reactor but the civil engineering needed to house and service it.

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Just because the present day is not the future you imagined 22 years ago, doesn’t mean it isn’t reality.