Why 2024-2034 Are Going To Look Very Different In Terms Of Climate Collapse And Its Impacts Than The Preceding Decade

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. "... which need to go to zero to stop the rising temperatures on the planet ..."

That would not stop the warming. It might slow the acceleration of the warming.

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/MeasuringStick.2023.12.14.pdf

Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good
14 December 2023
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy

Abstract. Global warming is accelerating because the drive for warming, Earth’s energy imbalance, has doubled in the past decade. Measurement of the acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical (El Nino/La Nina) variability, but a good measuring stick is provided by warming between successive large El Ninos. Strengthening of the current (2023-24) El Nino has raised it to a level similar to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos. The first six months of the current El Nino are 0.39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015-16 El Nino, a global warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, consistent with expectation of a large acceleration of global warming. We expect the 12-month mean temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt about global warming acceleration. Subsequent decline of the 12-month temperature below 1.5°C will likely be limited, confirming that the 1.5°C limit has already been passed.

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