Was the Ukraine airliner shoot down Iran's actual retaliation for Soleimani's assassination. [View all]

[WheelWalker]

If an Iranian missile battery took down the airliner, it was either:

1. An accidental/unintentional launch (possible, but I think more unlikely than likely - if true, bummer for those on the plane and the launch officer/trigger dude); or,

2. An intentional launch. If Intentional, it was either a case of
a. Mistaken identity (possible, I think more likely than #1 above, but still more unlikely than likely - if true, bummer for those on the plane and for the software engineer/programmer dude)
b. Action by one or more hard liners in charge of the missile battery, unhappy with the official, measured ICBM response. (possible, and I think more likely than 2.ac. above, and maybe as likely as not - if true, bummer for those on the plane and for the hard liner dudes.
c. Action intended by the Iranian rulers. (possible, but why? If true, bummer for those on the plane)

After due reflection, I'm going with #2.c. above. I think there was someone on that plane who the Iranian's wanted to take out. That the Iranians knew that someone was on that plane. That someone was on their way the hell out-of-Dodge. Perhaps that someone was the American's source that Soleimani was coming into Baghdad airport. Or other important American asset getting out whilst the getting was good.

I am not convinced that the benign no damage/no casualty ICBM launch was sufficient to satisfy the Iranian desire for revenge. It was not proportional or even significant in any meaningful way. I think it was a feint, intended to satisfy their people that a strike back at America had been made, and yet restrained enough to not alienate global opinion. Iran looks "good" to it's people and the rest of the world compared to the assassin IMPOTUS and the evil US devils. But it would not satisfy the Iranian hard liners (their Boltons and Pompeos).

Striking the Ukraine airliner with an important "someone" on board, especially if that someone was an American asset (or even the someone who ratted out Soleimani to the US), would be more proportional to Soleimani's assassination. There is the additional poetic irony if Iran took out that "someone" as the dude was leaving the Tehran airport. US intelligence would certainly know if this were the case, but would not be able to complain or even mention it publicly, for fear of giving credence to that "someone" being an American asset.

Indeed Iranian officials, to make certain that "someone" was on that Ukraine flight, may have floated information to reach that "someone" that the "jig is up", and allowed the "someone" to get on the flight and in the air before launching vengeance.

I'm just not buying that Iran's "true" response was the ICBM's. And I'm not buying the missile strike against the airliner (if that's what it was) would have been accidental, unintentional, or a rogue act by hard liners. The poetic similarity to Soleimani's assassination leaving Baghdad's airport, and an American asset brought down flying out of Tehran, while I admit, creative speculation, is just too seductive a conclusion for me to dismiss.