Last edited Sat Sep 24, 2022, 07:20 AM - Edit history (1)
And, I told James that to his face. He couldn't refute my numbers either.
(I used to be a member of SABR but fell away over WAR which I believe is a grossly flawed statistic using math that seems silly for creating a single value index.
The flaws are multiple: First, the odds of scoring from 2nd base are nearly twice as high as from first, even including homeruns being hit. Since base stealers are 75-80 effective, the lost 22% is really 11. The odds of scoring from first then is, at worst, a breakeven proposition, not a negative.
But, with the force out gone it changes how the battery approaches the rest of the at-bat. This is completely missing in James' conclusions.
Then, ground outs to the right side almost assure a man on third, with no force out. Fly balls to RF have a 30-40% of getting a tag up, where a runner on 1st has a near zero chance of getting to 2nd.
There are others, but you get the drift.
Bill was pissed as this happened with about 300 people in the room.
I felt like Perry Nason, grilling him.
BTW: SABR, Baseball Prospectus & Fangraphs all compute WAR in a different way, all with the same odd uses of mathematical operators in both the numerator & denominator. But, all different. The purveyors of WAR can't even agree on how to calculate it, nor do they have the same method for determining the "typical" replacement player.
The whole thing is less scientific than advertised.
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