2016 Postmortem

Buckeye_Democrat

(15,044 posts)

5. At least he was more cautious in his projections compared to most.

Sun Dec 11, 2016, 02:42 PM

Dec 2016

I'll also give him a pass in the final week because there wasn't many new polls at that time, at least not enough of them that were conducted entirely after the Comey "reopening the investigation" bullshit.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

82 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would've won before FBI letter [View all] yallerdawg Dec 2016 OP

There's multiple reasons and that letter is a big one. NWCorona Dec 2016 #1

All things being equal... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #6

Definitely! There's just too much of a backstory for it not to be politically motivated NWCorona Dec 2016 #9

Why he hasn't been investigated about this I don't know. It appears that he was ladjf Dec 2016 #27

If his name was J Edgar Hoover... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #30

If he has a private blackmail file, as Hoover had, that needs to be dealt with as well. nt ladjf Dec 2016 #32

I know why he hasn't been investigated about this.. red dog 1 Dec 2016 #56

As was weasel Chaffetz ... Oct. 28th Aimee in OKC Dec 2016 #57

Yet the fact that it was widely known that Russian hacking.. ananda Dec 2016 #41

Most of us... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #50

There was a lot of deflection and diversion. ananda Dec 2016 #68

Ignored by only one side: the GOP. susanna Dec 2016 #76

Perhaps in the war crimes trials that will be held in PatrickforO Dec 2016 #63

This election has caused me to lose much of my sense of civility. If I ever see... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #2

This is all we need to know flamingdem Dec 2016 #3

Here's something we can do now... red dog 1 Dec 2016 #65

Sorry Silver MFM008 Dec 2016 #4

At least he was more cautious in his projections compared to most. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #5

Remember how he was vilified at DU... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #8

I didn't want to believe it either. I thought he might've included too many "junk polls"... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #11

He had to defend his model because he didn't have Hillary at 90%+ like the rest NWCorona Dec 2016 #10

ok MFM008 Dec 2016 #21

I agree, but he didn't have enough to "work with" near the end. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #23

And he was ridiculed on here for doing so. Joe941 Dec 2016 #80

He was ripped here before the election for giving Trump a 30% chance. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #7

Before the twitter storm against Silver on his projections. NWCorona Dec 2016 #13

I remember that too. He seemed to give her a "bump" near the end and... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #15

He doesn't do polls himself. He uses polls provided by others and his program aggregates these polls LisaL Dec 2016 #22

Silver made a fool of himself... he had us all believing his BS. I know so many who thought we had it "in the bag" and didn't bother showing up to vote... InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #28

You clearly didn't read 538 at all mythology Dec 2016 #71

One of many responsible, starting with the candidate... though how she lost to a blithering idiot, Nazi racist lunatic, I'll never understand!! InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #74

He didn't blow it. The polls clearly showed a large undecided block pnwmom Dec 2016 #53

Yes I remember seeing the large 'undecideds' on the road to 270 site and I said if that is true TrekLuver Dec 2016 #69

It's not the letter, it's the oversensationalized overemphasized "News" coverage of it. nt JCanete Dec 2016 #12

I think it was both. Comeys actions were highly unusual to the point NWCorona Dec 2016 #14

I'm not excusing him or his intentions. I think those are pretty clear. How those intentions played JCanete Dec 2016 #16

Yep. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #17

He would have to have known that media was going to do exactly what it did. LisaL Dec 2016 #24

known or hoped, it doesn't matter. It's not like the media is actually a dog you wag, as much JCanete Dec 2016 #26

There would be nothing for it to focus on if Comey didn't send his letter, knowing full well it will LisaL Dec 2016 #29

Exactly, it was intentionally vaguely worded, radius777 Dec 2016 #19

Add to that that FBI knew about the letters at least since early October, from what has been LisaL Dec 2016 #25

The same can be said of his July press conference. He deliberately chose his words StevieM Dec 2016 #38

Agree. It's clear now the July press conf was radius777 Dec 2016 #47

I presume Comey knew full well his letter will result in such news coverage. LisaL Dec 2016 #18

That makes no sense... no letter, no coverage. InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #31

Well, exactly. LisaL Dec 2016 #33

No question... Comey should be frog marched out of the building and tried for his crimes!! InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #34

well holy fuck, you read my comment as defending Comey. How? JCanete Dec 2016 #43

How long did it take you to hear about the water protectors from a mainstream source? JCanete Dec 2016 #45

I see your point and, yes, it's likely the Rethug friendly media would've focused on something else to tRump's benefit. InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #70

certainly. not 'almost certainly'. /nt radius777 Dec 2016 #20

Suggestive but by no means definitive. There's no correlation established. ucrdem Dec 2016 #35

The table shows how the votes broke for undecideds during the last week. yallerdawg Dec 2016 #36

Several reasons. Here's one: ucrdem Dec 2016 #40

As noted elsewhere today: yallerdawg Dec 2016 #46

Also suggestive, but even if definitive, it wouldn't account for that 8-pt leap in WI. ucrdem Dec 2016 #51

The RCP polling you are citing... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #59

We've got US senators of both parties calling for investigations into this election. ucrdem Dec 2016 #64

It looks like Silver's 59-30 margin for WI came from the CNN exit polls? Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #62

Silver has been wrong. We'll never know George Eliot Dec 2016 #37

We do know one thing. The email investigation was not being reopened per the letter, and the media still_one Dec 2016 #42

Why am I not surprised that The Hill lapucelle Dec 2016 #60

Actually whe MSNBC grabbed opened a breaking news saying the email investigation had been still_one Dec 2016 #39

Nate who? TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #44

I don't about anything Nate Silver says either. Initech Dec 2016 #49

James Comey committed an act of treason. Initech Dec 2016 #48

plus 1 red dog 1 Dec 2016 #54

WHY does that Hatch Act-violating sonofabi*ch still have a job then? n/t CousinIT Dec 2016 #52

Ask Obama that question! red dog 1 Dec 2016 #66

Comey is a criminal..He violated the Hatch Act! red dog 1 Dec 2016 #55

How can someone be one week from the election and wavering between Clinton and Trump??? Roland99 Dec 2016 #58

We need to recognize that most people... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #61

I've certainly met people like that. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #67

They were voters who disliked Clinton but were nervous about Trump. In the end, they decided Midwestern Democrat Dec 2016 #73

Or she could've just use the goddamn government server... Yurovsky Dec 2016 #72

It was perfect timing budkin Dec 2016 #75

i agree, and recognized the disastrous timing at the time-- but there was nothing to be done andym Dec 2016 #77

Seems like timing was picked for maximum impact. LisaL Dec 2016 #79

Yes-- the timing couldn't have been worse-- suppressed the early Democratic leaning vote andym Dec 2016 #82

At time of letter, Trump was getting bashed for comments on women, etc. After FBI letter, Hoyt Dec 2016 #78

The Comey letter did its job.. Docreed2003 Dec 2016 #81