In all the "Bernie would have won/No he wouldn't" posts I've read........... [View all]

[socialist_n_TN]

very few have explored one of the main reasons that he COULD have won IMO. And that is bringing in independent and discouraged voters into the Democratic Party fold.

Democrats and Republicans both need to realize that they are no longer majorities in regards to anything political anymore. They're not majorities among the voting age population, as shown by the low percentage of potential voters who didn't even bother to vote and neither party is a majority among people who actually pay attention and state a political preference. At 43%, self proclaimed independents hold that role.

Now independent does cover a lot of territory on the left/right spectrum, including true independents (10% according to Gallup) to "Democratic leaning" independents (18% per Gallup) to 16% "Republican leaning" independents (again Gallup). But regardless of their place, left or right, they don't characterize themselves as D or R. Which means they feel their beliefs aren't covered by a majority of the Dems or the Repubs.

That's also the reason, IMO, that Bernie didn't win the Democratic primary. His views are to the left of most Democrats. But that doesn't mean his views are to the left of the nearly 50% that don't bother or the 18% of Dem leaning independents who don't think the Democrats fully represent their views. THESE are the voters that Bernie could have potentially brought into the Dem fold in 2016 that could have brought him a victory.

In talking about a postmortem, you MUST take these voters into account for the future or you wind up dismissing a large percentage of the voting age population. A percentage that the Dems need to win elections.

And yes Bloomberg could have effected the election by running as a third party candidate, but could he have brought in these disenfranchised and discouraged voters? As a clear representative of the billionaire establishment, I don't think so.

In short, I don't think that anybody can really know who would have won in 2016 between Bernie, Trump, and Bloomberg, but Bernie would have had a shot simply because he could have appealed to that 50% or so that didn't vote or voted third party.